The worldwide commercial P&C insurance market is on track to be worth US$895.1bn in gross written premiums by 2018 with premiums for commercial liability cover forecast to grow fastest.
Worldwide, the value of commercial non-life insurance premiums in 2014 was US$728.6bn with the global market size having grown at a nominal compound annual growth rate of 5.1% since 2010, when premiums were worth US$596.3bn, though this growth rate was 3.0% in real terms.
Moreover, in 2014, the worldwide market value broke down between US$210.3bn (28.9% of the total) in commercial motor insurance premiums -- the largest single segment of the global market -- and US$518.3bn in premiums for all other types of commercial non-life insurance including, most notably, commercial liability and property cover.
The figures are top-level findings from a research study released by financial researcher Finaccord this week.
Looking ahead, Finaccord expects that the global commercial non-life insurance market is likely to increase at slightly faster nominal and real compound annual growth rates between 2014 and 2018 than it did between 2010 and 2014 with the result that it will reach a value of around US$895.1bn by 2018, which converts to US$824.5bon when deflated in line with forecast inflation rates.
“Worldwide, we expect commercial liability insurance premiums to increase at more than three times the rate of commercial motor, commercial property and commercial MAT premiums through to 2018”, said David Parry, managing consultant at Finaccord.
“This will essentially be a result of liability insurance growth in the US, which constitutes more than half of the global commercial liability insurance market. While the commercial motor and property insurance markets are stable in the US, liability premiums continue to grow strongly, especially for workers' accident insurance."
“At a respective US$266.0bn, US$63.1bn and US$33.7bn in gross written premiums, the US, China and Germany were the world’s largest commercial lines markets in 2014”, said Parry.
A further significant finding of the study is that the composition of commercial non-life insurance markets between different lines of business varies substantially between different countries. In 2014, commercial motor insurance premiums accounted for the highest proportion of the total national commercial lines market in China at 58.8% while commercial liability and commercial property premiums peaked in Australia (57.1%) and Sweden (44.6%), respectively. As for commercial MAT (Marine, Aviation, and Transport) insurance, this represented the highest proportion of the total national commercial lines market in Norway (33.8%).
“The composition of commercial non-life insurance by country is shaped by the maturity of each market, by industrial specialisms and by national regulations. For example, the MAT sector in Norway includes energy insurance, and since the shipping and energy sectors are both very important parts of the country’s economy, this makes the MAT insurance line unusually large", said Parry.