A tornado outbreak between May 15 and 18 has resulted in widespread damage across Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Arkansas, with three EF3 and one EF4 tornado confirmed.
Guy Carpenter said the event is likely the most expensive severe weather loss of the year to date, based on current damage assessments to homes, businesses, and public infrastructure.
Thousands of buildings were damaged in urban areas such as St. Louis, and power outages affected more than 600,000 customers across the region. In total, at least 33 tornadoes were reported during the outbreak.
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Guy Carpenter noted that both economic and insured losses from the event are significant, with implications for underwriting and pricing in high-exposure regions.
As of May 18, a total of 731 tornadoes have been recorded in the United States for the year. This figure is approaching the historical record for the date and signals a severe weather season trending well above average.
Guy Carpenter expects severe convective storm activity to persist through mid-June, in line with seasonal norms. Hail and wind reports also remain elevated compared to the 2005–2015 average.
Guy Carpenter said the broader economic toll will exceed insured losses due to factors such as infrastructure repairs, business interruption, and uninsured property damage. The firm anticipates that insurers will assess premium adequacy and underwriting standards in light of the high volume of losses from this and other recent events.
Giant insurer State Farm has already reported some of the damage, with the company receiving more than 8,800 claims from property damage across Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Indiana.
As of the morning of May 19, State Farm said it had received approximately 4,110 home and auto claims in Missouri. Claims in Illinois totaled nearly 2,600, with about 1,170 reported in Kentucky and 950 in Indiana.
Since 1990, 25 severe convective storm events have led to inflation-adjusted losses of US$4 billion or more, according to Guy Carpenter. Of these, most have resulted in losses between US$4 billion and US$6 billion, while about a quarter exceeded US$6 billion.
Four of the five most damaging events involved tornadoes, including the 2020 Midwest Derecho, which remains the highest loss event of its kind in the United States. Missouri has figured prominently in past loss events, appearing in four of the 25 most severe outbreaks.
Tornado activity in 2025 has so far been concentrated in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, east of the region traditionally identified as Tornado Alley. Guy Carpenter noted that this eastward shift in activity aligns with longer-term trends in severe thunderstorm patterns observed over the past decade.
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