Alongside Aon’s catastrophe model development center Impact Forecasting, Chubb will be working on a risk model to enable more realistic quantifications of property and casualty losses than offered by current models. The new model is said to be based on a state-of-the-art approach to blast engineering, and provides more accurate insights into terrorism risk.
“Despite tremendous advances in the underlying science over the past few decades, the catastrophe models available to insurers remain outdated,” Chubb chief digital officer and chief risk offer Sean Ringsted said. “That’s why we are so excited about our partnership with Impact Forecasting.
“By using the latest science and most sophisticated risk management tools, we gain unique insights into the risk profile in Manhattan. This will help us better assess and manage this critical exposure in our business,” he noted.
The idea is that the model provides simulations of thousands of blast interactions with the surrounding three-dimensional building environment. These simulations are then combined with a detailed engineering approach that considers the buildings’ structural resistance and performance from the perspective of anti-terrorism standards and progressive collapse design guidelines.
This methodology enables the model to distinguish between facade and structural damage, as well as to determine the likelihood that a building will collapse. By identifying the type of damage projected to be sustained by each building and the injuries and fatalities associated with it, the model is expected to lead to more accurate estimates of property and workers’ compensation losses.
“The new terrorism risk model for Manhattan provides an enhanced view of the terrorism risk,” Aon’s Impact Forecasting team catastrophe risk consultant Cristina Arango said. “We have developed an approach that can be applied to any city across the world, quantifying the effect of modeling uncertainties to highlight the variation of the possible impacts.
“Our goal is to provide insurers with the insight and analytical tools to help them manage terrorism risk more strategically,” she added.