Premiums for health coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) could potentially increase more than in past years in most markets across the US, according to a preliminary analysis of insurers’ plans.
The analysis was conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which published its findings Wednesday. The foundation’s projections were based the preliminary rates insurers had filed with state regulators—the rates remain subject to state or federal review before they are implemented next year.
The report chose to analyze data for the two lowest ACA silver plans since more than two-thirds of marketplace enrollees choose them.
Kaiser’s study found that premiums for the second-lowest silver plan could rise 10% on average next year in 14 major metropolitan areas. In the previous year, the approved average increase for such plans was 5%.
Premiums for the lowest-cost ACA silver plan are expected to rise in all but two of the 14 markets analyzed by the study. Notably, such premiums in Portland, Oregon may increase next year by an average of 26%. On the other hand, premiums for the lowest-cost silver plan in Providence, Rhode Island could see a 14% drop.
The study noted that more than eight in 10 marketplace enrollees will not be directly affected by the increases in premiums since they receive a government subsidy that offsets the price hikes.
Only a quarter of the nation’s states have disclosed information on ACA premiums for next year, keeping the report’s scope limited. California is set to make public its information on any premium changes in July. Other states, such as Texas and Florida, will not release any information until the marketplace opens in November.
“We have tracked these same states as an early indicator of premium changes for the past few years and, while on average they have never been far off from the national average, we don’t know yet whether they are necessarily representative for 2017,” said report co-author Cynthia Cox.
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