President Trump's claim that the US Navy has removed or detonated all mines in the Strait of Hormuz changes the kinetic picture, but it does not change the insurance one, at least not yet.
The BBC reported Trump posted on Truth Social that all mines had been removed or detonated from the strait's international waters, and that Iran had been warned any vessel placing new mines would be destroyed immediately. Within the hour, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi announced that Oman and Iran had agreed a framework for a joint mine-clearing project. That statement implies the mines are not yet fully gone.
The day before Trump's post, a tanker had been struck nine nautical miles northeast of Ash Shishah, Oman, disabling its engine and leaving the crew safe, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency.
The conflict began on February 28, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Before then, approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transited the strait each day, according to the BBC. War risk premiums at the time stood at around 0.25% of hull value. Within weeks of the strikes, rates surged to between 3% and 10%, according to Marsh's global head of marine Marcus Baker.
For a US$150 million tanker, a 10% war risk premium means a US$15 million insurance bill for a single transit, against roughly US$375,000 before the war. That arithmetic has kept most commercial vessels out of the strait regardless of political announcements.
Baker told S&P Global in July that underwriters remained nervous despite some improvement after the June memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran. The Lloyd's Market Association's Joint War Committee expanded its high-risk designation to cover the entire Persian Gulf when hostilities began. That listing will not be removed until the committee sees sustained incident-free passage, a settled geopolitical picture, and formal evidence that demining is complete. None of those conditions existed as of publication.
The war has generated between US$2 billion and US$3 billion in market-wide claims across the war, terror and political violence segment, according to a Howden Re report. That exceeds the segment's estimated annual global premium volume of US$1.5 billion to US$2 billion.
Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association, summed up the position plainly. "There was always and there remains sufficient capacity, with cover available for a price," he said. "That price reflects the risk."
The Iran-Oman corridor framework announced on August 26 creates new variables rather than resolving old ones. Iranian minister Kazem Gharibabad said no military vessels would be permitted and that the US-recommended southern corridor close to Oman's coast would be closed under Iran's framework. The route would run inbound through Iranian waters and outbound through Omani territorial waters, with a 60-day timeline to agree a permanent arrangement.
War risk premiums surged to as high as 10% of hull value at their peak, up from 0.25% before the conflict began, according to Marsh's Dylan Saunders-Mortimer. Current market estimates as of publication put the range at between 3% and 8% for Hormuz transits.
Underwriters price each voyage individually under the Joint War Committee's Additional Premium mechanism. A move from the established southern lane to an Iranian-administered route carries distinct coverage implications: existing policies written around the US-approved corridor may not extend automatically to a new Iranian-approved route.
There is also a sanctions risk. The US Treasury's OFAC designated the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on May 27, linking it to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Any party paying PGSA transit fees faces OFAC sanctions exposure, including secondary sanctions for non-US entities.
Brokers with tanker clients planning Hormuz transits should confirm which lane their coverage applies to and whether any transit fee payment creates sanctions exposure before a vessel moves.
The clearest parallel is the Red Sea, where Houthi attacks on commercial shipping dropped sharply in late 2025 but war risk premiums took months to follow. Howden Re described Hormuz 2026 as a "rare multi-line insurance event testing the global reinsurance market simultaneously," adding that the structural repricing of the marine war risk baseline from both the Red Sea and Hormuz crises is likely permanent. The Joint War Committee's listed-area designation will not be formally removed until demining is independently verified and the geopolitical position is genuinely settled.
IMF PortWatch recorded one commercial transit on August 16, the most recently published day at time of writing, against a pre-crisis median of approximately 73 vessels per day. Trump's announcement may shift diplomatic momentum and accelerate the Iran-Oman talks. What it will not do is prompt the Joint War Committee to lift its listing. Underwriters will not reprice a corridor that has not been confirmed, demined, or tested under operational conditions.
