The value of world trade protected by credit insurance rose to €9.58 trillion in 2025, up from €9.25 trillion the previous year, according to the latest figures released by the International Credit Insurance and Surety Association (ICISA). The increase reflects growing demand for cover in an environment shaped by economic uncertainty, rising insolvencies, and the continued expansion of cross-border trade.
The headline growth, however, sits alongside a subtler shift. As a share of total world trade, credit insurance coverage slipped from an estimated 15% to 14% between 2024 and 2025. The gap reflects two factors ICISA identifies: world trade growing faster than GDP, which affects how coverage penetration is measured, and the euro’s appreciation against the dollar compressing the percentage when measured against a dollar-denominated trade base.
According to the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, published in March 2026, world goods and services trade grew approximately 4.7% in 2025, against GDP growth of 2.9%.
Currency movements added another layer of distortion. The euro appreciated by 17% against the US dollar between January 2025 and January 2026, according to BNP Paribas, compressing the percentage when measured against a dollar-denominated trade base. ICISA noted that, adjusted for constant dollar terms, the share of world trade covered by credit insurance would have increased by four basis points year on year.
The growth in insured trade volumes reflects a broader shift in how businesses are managing counterparty risk. ICISA pointed to sustained demand from companies seeking protection against non-payment, particularly those operating across borders where buyer knowledge is limited and financing conditions remain tight. Its Q3 2026 Business Sentiment Survey found ICISA members reporting continued demand growth for both trade credit insurance and surety, though the outlook on claims and insolvencies remains cautious.
Global business insolvencies rose 6% in 2025 and are forecast to climb a further 5% in 2026, according to Allianz Trade, which would mark five consecutive annual increases. ICISA notes the insolvency environment is concentrating attention on the conditions under which credit can safely be extended, particularly for companies with high trade receivable exposure.
ICISA members, who represent around 80% of global premium volumes, accounted for over €3.5 trillion in insured exposure related to trade receivables alone in 2025, with additional billions committed across surety bonds covering construction, energy, and infrastructure.
Around 70% of cover in 2025 was provided by the private insurance market. That figure underscores the commercial sector’s central role in facilitating trade finance, particularly as businesses in strained sectors look to use insured receivables to unlock lending. With the risk of buyer default mitigated by an insurer, banks and financing companies treat those receivables as more secure assets, improving both the availability and pricing of working capital.
The persistent gap between trade growth and coverage penetration is not purely a pricing or capacity problem. Part of the explanation lies in how the ICISA metric is constructed: the proportion of world GDP made up of trade is a key variable, and as global commerce expands faster than underlying economic output, the denominator shifts. The dollar depreciation effect compounded this in 2025, masking underlying growth in coverage when viewed in nominal euro terms.
Still, the trajectory of insured volumes moving upward while the coverage share edges down points to a market where demand is outrunning penetration. ICISA identified geopolitical conflict as among the greatest concerns weighing on the credit insurance market, with both direct and indirect economic effects feeding through to claims and insolvency risk. The growth in insured shipments to €9.58 trillion points to more businesses seeking protection, even as the share of global commerce they collectively represent continues to narrow.
