Reinsurers that cut market share during soft pricing cycles cannot regain it once the market hardens, according to new analysis from Oxbow Partners.
The London-based management consultancy examined roughly US$160 billion in gross written premium across 13 property-and-casualty reinsurers over two full market cycles: 2016-2020 and 2021-2025. No company that shrank during the softer period managed to grow again once pricing firmed, according to Oxbow Partners. The four reinsurers that expanded the most during the recent hard market had also grown the most during the preceding soft cycle, while companies that pulled back hardest failed to recover lost ground.
The finding challenges a common assumption among reinsurance executives, who have argued that restraint in soft markets preserves capital for deployment once rates recover. Oxbow Partners said its data does not support that approach. Reinsurers that held back growth during softer pricing underperformed peers across the full 10-year cycle it examined.
Underwriting performance also diverged along similar lines.
Companies Oxbow classified as "growth" reinsurers posted lower average combined ratios across 2016-2025 than firms grouped as "maintain" or "pull back." Combined ratios among the growth group ranged from 87% to 95%, compared with as high as 98% among companies that retreated during the soft market.
Oxbow cautioned that the sample size is limited and that company-specific strategies influenced results, but said the pattern remained consistent across both underwriting cycles.
RenaissanceRe's latest results suggest a more cautious approach as pricing softens, contrasting with Oxbow Partners' argument that reinsurers should avoid retreating during soft markets. The reinsurer, which Oxbow's data credits with growing through both the last soft and hard markets, reported Q2 2026 results this week showing it has pulled back on premiums written and bought more retrocession protection. Chief executive Kevin O'Donnell said strong underwriting performance "anchored" results, with the reinsurer delivering $599.1 million of underwriting income and a 72.8% combined ratio in the quarter, improved from 75.1% a year earlier. Underwriting income was roughly flat year-over-year even as premium volume fell.
The retreat comes as broker data confirms the broader market has softened sharply. Guy Carpenter recorded the global property catastrophe rate-on-line index falling to -16% by mid-year, deepening from -12% at January 1, 2026. Howden Re logged risk-adjusted decreases of up to 25% at the June 1 renewal, its steepest pace of the year.
Oxbow Partners' analysis, published early this week, forms part of its broader CEO Agenda 2026 series on reinsurance strategy. A related section reported by Global Reinsurance in March found underwriting profit across leading reinsurers reached a decade high of US$14.8 billion in 2024, with results in the first three quarters of 2025 already surpassing the previous year's full-year outcome, and that 2026 renewals were down across the board, with some property lines reducing by double digits year on year.
Oxbow Partners recommended reinsurers use the current soft period to define a distinct competitive "edge" rather than retreating on exposure.
