Acrisure Re has projected around 13 named storms and approximately four landfalls for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, pointing to a year that could sit slightly below historical norms despite continued warm ocean conditions across parts of the basin.
The June to November forecast is being shaped by two main factors: a still-warm Atlantic and the expected return of El Niño during the peak months of the season. The projected storm count is just below the long-term average of 14 named storms.
Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are no longer at the record levels seen in recent years, according to Acrisure Re. However, they remain above normal in several important areas, including the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Warm water can support storm formation and intensification, especially when other conditions are favourable.
At the same time, El Niño is expected to develop in the tropical Pacific and continue through the main part of the hurricane season. El Niño usually increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to form and strengthen. Acrisure Re said this is likely to limit overall activity and push the season slightly below normal.
“While we anticipate a more moderate season compared to recent years, the industry cannot afford complacency. The lessons of recent hurricane seasons continue to reinforce that it only takes one major storm making landfall in a populated region to create significant human and economic loss. Preparedness and disciplined risk management remain critical,” Acrisure Re CEO Simon Hedley.
The outlook follows an uneven 2025 season. The Atlantic produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes - below average for named storms and hurricanes but above average for major hurricanes.
By another measure, the season was slightly above normal. Acrisure Re said 2025 generated 133 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy, about 8% above the 1991 to 2020 mean.
The season’s most severe storm was Hurricane Melissa, which formed near the end of October and became the third Category 5 storm of the year. According to the report, Melissa made landfall along Jamaica’s southern coast near peak strength, caused at least 93 fatalities and led to an estimated $12.2 billion in physical damage across Jamaica.
Other storms also showed how quickly conditions can change. In 2025, Hurricane Erin increased its peak wind speed by 85 mph in 24 hours, tying for the fourth-fastest 24-hour intensification rate in Atlantic basin history.
Acrisure Re said ocean heat content in the Main Development Region has fallen from recent highs and is now near normal. Across the wider basin, conditions are mostly near average, with some areas slightly below average and some warmer pockets. That points to near-average activity, but still leaves room for rapid intensification if a storm moves over higher ocean heat content.
“Intraseasonal variability and shorter-term atmospheric patterns will continue to influence when and where storms develop throughout the season. Although overall activity may trend closer to average, elevated ocean temperatures in key regions mean the potential for rapid intensification and impactful landfalls remains a significant concern,” said Ming Li, global head of cat modeling at Acrisure Re.
Saharan dust is unlikely to be a major suppressing factor this year, but early-season outbreaks could still reduce activity at certain points. Acrisure Re also said shorter-term patterns, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves, could create periods of higher or lower storm activity within the season.
