Experts discussed the evolving science and technology of hurricane forecasting during a panel at ILS Bermuda Convergence 2025.
Jo Syroka, director of new markets at Fermat Capital Management, and Judith Curry, climatologist and president of Climate Forecast Applications Network, shared insights on sub-seasonal hurricane prediction and the challenges of anticipating storm intensity.
As of the event, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season had produced nine named storms and three hurricanes, with Tropical Storm Chantal being the only system to make landfall in the United States. This statistic was highlighted during the panel as participants examined the season’s activity and the evolving risk landscape for insurers and reinsurers.
In a report from the Royal Gazette, Curry described her focus on the two-to-six-week forecasting window, explaining that models “become less skilful beyond the weather timescale, but each of these timescales has different sources of predictability.”
Her methodology uses large ensembles and synthetic tracks, with her company employing a Monte Carlo approach to generate “12,000 tracks for each storm each day.” She said this process creates dynamic “cones of uncertainty” that help improve long-range forecasts.
Syroka recalled a 2022 exchange with Curry, who had identified a “low rider” wave off Africa that later developed into Hurricane Ian. Syroka said, “I was quite concerned. Hopefully, that's not a foreshadowing for the rest of the season,” after Curry referenced the term again in a recent e-mail.
Curry addressed the ongoing challenge of forecasting rapid storm intensification, noting that both physics-based and artificial intelligence models face limitations.
“Our new AI indices are outperforming the NHC [National Hurricane Centre] rapid intensification forecast at 24 and 48 hours,” she said, while also observing, “AI weather emulators … you can run them very quickly … but intensity forecasts … have been pretty useless.”
The panel also discussed the potential impact of the proposed fiscal year 2025 budget for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes a nearly 40% reduction in funding compared to the previous year. Curry said the cuts could affect weather forecasting, climate research, and public safety, and the insurance industry is closely monitoring the situation as it could influence risk modeling and disaster preparedness.
Despite concerns about funding, Curry pointed to bipartisan support for the Weather Reauthorization Act, which aims to advance NOAA’s research and forecasting capabilities.
She also noted the growing role of private sector partnerships, saying, “Constellations of small satellites are being launched … providing new data for assimilation into weather forecast models.” Curry concluded, “I have to say, I'm cautiously optimistic about where all this is going.”
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