SiriusPoint's global reinsurance chief expects the January 1 renewals to highlight diverging conditions across property, specialty and casualty lines, with pricing and terms likely to come under close scrutiny.
David Govrin, president and CEO of global reinsurance at SiriusPoint, said the market is shaping up as “a tale of three markets (property, specialty, and casualty) as we head into January 1, assuming benign global property catastrophe activity through year-end.” He described property as the bellwether segment that will continue to set the tone for overall reinsurance conditions.
Govrin said the property market “will be competitive with pressure on rate, terms, and conditions” after another year of modest catastrophe activity, despite the impact of California wildfires.
He indicated that cedents should expect detailed negotiations over structure and wording as reinsurers recalibrate after a relatively light global cat loss experience.
That backdrop is broadly consistent with Aon’s mid-2025 assessment that “the market environment has shifted in favor of buyers,” with more flexibility on terms, conditions and coverage at the June 1 and July 1 renewals in key regions including the US, Latin America, Australia and New Zealand.
Aon also highlighted strong catastrophe bond issuance and additional capacity coming into the market, factors that are likely to reinforce the competitive dynamics Govrin expects to see at 1/1.
In specialty, Govrin said conditions will depend heavily on the underlying line. “The specialty markets will generally be competitive, but pricing, terms, and conditions will vary dramatically depending on the underlying specialty,” he said.
He cited aviation as an example where “there will be upward pricing and retention pressure,” reflecting how loss experience is feeding into renewal discussions. At the same time, he said “other lines with better performance, such as parts of the marine and energy markets, will experience downward pressure,” signaling more capacity and softer terms in those areas.
Govrin characterized US casualty as the area with the widest spread of reinsurer views. “US casualty continues to be the market with the greatest disparity of reinsurer views with some reinsurers growing their books while others are shrinking,” he said, pointing to differing stances on social inflation, prior-year deterioration and cedent underwriting quality.
Antares Global CEO Mike van der Straaten has given a similar read on overall direction, flagging a “measured softening” into the Jan. 1, 2026 renewals, with risk-adjusted rate-on-line expected to decline by high single to low teens if no major catastrophe losses occur.
Govrin said that, across all three segments, counterparties should expect that message to carry through into negotiations.
“As always, reinsurers will continue to emphasize the importance of underwriting discipline, and proactive, transparent dialogue with brokers and clients,” he said, indicating that renewal outcomes will hinge on detailed portfolio data and contract specifics rather than headline rate moves alone.
