Swiss Re projects strong insurance growth in China

Economic resilience and reforms position the country as a key destination

Swiss Re projects strong insurance growth in China

Reinsurance

By Kenneth Araullo

Swiss Re views China as a key investment destination, citing the country’s sustained economic growth, even amid external challenges, according to Jerome Jean Haegeli (pictured above), the group chief economist for the global reinsurance provider.

“We remain committed to being here for the long term, and we view the business as highly strategic. Likewise, we do asset-liability matching, and we have reasonable investments in China. There’s no reason for making any changes about our plans,” Haegeli said.

Swiss Re projects China’s economy to grow by 4.6% in 2025 under its baseline forecast, which assumes additional US tariffs of 10-30% on Chinese exports and selective tariffs of up to 10% on goods from other nations. The forecast also factors in modest retaliatory measures by China.

In an interview with China Daily, Haegeli noted that a significant escalation in US tariffs, such as a 60% increase on Chinese goods, is unlikely due to the potential negative effects on the US economy, especially with inflation above target levels.

While the 2025 growth rate is projected to decline from 2024 levels, Haegeli emphasized that 4.6% remains strong by global standards. He said such growth figures are unlikely in developed economies, including the United States and much of Europe.

Haegeli highlighted opportunities in China’s insurance market, where penetration remains relatively low compared to other global regions. He said policymakers in China have shown a commitment to strengthening the insurance industry as a key tool for building economic resilience and addressing financial shocks.

China’s insurance industry recorded primary premium income of ¥4.79 trillion (US$653.3 billion) in the first three quarters of 2024, a 7.2% year-on-year increase, according to the National Financial Regulatory Administration. Reinsurance company assets reached ¥823.1 billion by the end of September, up 10.2% from the start of the year.

Haegeli noted that while China’s economic growth has slowed compared to historical levels, this is not necessarily negative if it reflects a shift toward a more sustainable economic model. He pointed to the need for policies that enhance the role of consumption as a driver of growth and support long-term stability.

“China has the policy scope for more easing measures to protect the economy from downward pressure,” he said, suggesting that strengthening the social security system could help redirect savings into the real economy.

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, recently said that the country is likely to achieve its 2024 growth target of around 5% and that macroeconomic policy adjustments will be intensified to maintain growth momentum.

Haegeli also stressed the importance of addressing debt issues in the real estate sector and deepening reforms at state-owned enterprises. He noted that such measures would support productivity growth and improve market dynamics, contributing to a more robust economic recovery.

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