Following one of the worst nat cat years ever, insurers can breathe a minor sigh of relief this year, as the number of tropical cyclones making landfall in Asia-Pacific is likely to fall below average, according to a study’s predictions.
Research by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) of the City University of Hong Kong showed that the number of cyclones for the six-month period beginning on May 01 is estimated at around 18, but fewer than eight are expected to hit land.
From 1977 to 2018, the average was 16 cyclones, with around 11 making landfall, the centre said.
Japan and South Korea landfalls are predicted to be fewer than the average of 5.2. This bodes well for Japan, which was hit hard by typhoons in 2018. These included Typhoon Jebi, the strongest in 25 years.
Eastern China and Taiwan are also projected to fall below the average of 3.8, while other regions, such as south China and Vietnam and the Philippines, are expected to be hit by a near-average number of landfalls.
According to the GCACIC, the patterns are consistent with a weak El Niño year, where above-average sea surface temperatures accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific region make for conditions somewhat unconducive to storms.