Lloyd's puts forward its World Cup forecast

Prediction made based on the insurance value of teams

Lloyd's puts forward its World Cup forecast

Insurance News

By Terry Gangcuangco

Research from insurance broker JLT Specialty is saying Brazil is likely to emerge victorious at the 2018 FIFA World Cup; but now Lloyd’s, whose Germany forecast back in 2014 was correct, is betting on the France squad.

The world’s specialist insurance and reinsurance market has released its latest World Cup prediction, based on a study conducted by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) on its behalf. The team rankings were arrived at using the collective insurable value of players, with France, England, and Brazil named as the top three.

Cebr, whose research was supported by Sporting Intelligence, assessed insurable values by using indicators such as players’ wages and endorsement incomes and coming up with until-retirement projections. It estimated the total collective value of all the clubs in this year’s tournament at £13.1 billion (around SG$23.4 billion), with forwards – whose legs, according to the study, are worth £19.2 million (around SG$34.3 million) on average – being ‘the most valuable’ players. 

“Our model correctly predicted the winner of the 2014 FIFA World Cup, so we wanted to put it to the test once again,” said Victoria De’Ath, Lloyd’s Class of Business. “The analysis makes interesting reading for football fans who are preparing for the most popular and widely viewed sporting event in the world.

“The contrast between the teams at the top and bottom in terms of insurable value is staggering, with the top six national teams worth more than the other 26 combined. We can’t wait to see if some teams can defy the odds and make it through, and if the favourites can prove their worth.”

Current titleholder Germany ranks fourth on the Lloyd’s list.


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