Gallagher Re is calling time on the long-standing view that severe convective storms are a secondary risk in Europe, warning in a new report that the peril now sits at the heart of reinsurance, capital and underwriting decisions, and that next-generation analytics will be needed to keep pace with SCS losses running into the billions.
In its report, the reinsurance broker said the past five years account for just over 40% of total SCS losses in Europe over the past two decades.
The peril made up nearly 60% of total insured losses from all perils across the last five-year period, up from about 50% over the past 20 years, while insurance penetration has held broadly steady, with insured losses averaging around 70% of total economic SCS losses.
Recent loss years underline the shift. Italy logged its worst SCS episode on record in summer 2023, when July storms drove roughly €5.9 billion (US$6.4 billion) in insured losses, largely from large hail.
In summer 2022, hail outbreaks in France pushed insured losses above €4.2 billion. A series of outbreaks across western and central Europe in June 2021 produced €5.3 billion in aggregate industry losses, with Germany, Switzerland and Austria among the hardest hit.
The European loss picture has also been reshaped by windstorm activity. Gallagher Re's Q1 2026 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report found that windstorms pushed Europe to its highest economic catastrophe losses since 1999.
This came as no single event crossed the $10 billion insured threshold — reigniting debate over whether European windstorm still warrants "peak" peril status given every other major peril has breached that mark over the past two decades.
Hail, particularly large hail, remains the dominant SCS loss driver. Citing European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) research, Gallagher Re said northern Italy has seen a rise in hail greater than 2 centimeters in diameter since the 1950s, with the trend accelerating since 2010.
Very large hail, exceeding 5 centimeters, is now estimated to be three times more likely than in the 1950s.
The broker's proprietary Severe Convective Storm Index (SCSi), drawn from ERA5 reanalysis data, points to a marked rise in atmospheric conditions conducive to convective storms in Italy since 2016. The index is intended to quantify storm-favorable environments over time and support trend analysis and parametric product design.
Tornadoes and straight-line winds are also contributing to the loss tally, the broker said. Straight-line winds can represent a modest but material share of annual losses, while a 2021 tornado in Czechia generated economic losses approaching €700 million in current terms.
Gallagher Re is working with ESSL on what it describes as the first probabilistic, pan-European SCS model to explicitly capture hail, tornado and straight-line wind, drawing on NASA satellite data on "overshooting tops" alongside updated claims and event records.
The firm said the analytics are designed to support more granular underwriting, sharper reinsurance pricing and structuring, improved capital modeling and faster post-event loss estimates, as cedents and reinsurers recalibrate retentions, hours clauses and pricing in response to escalating European SCS losses.
