Reinsurance broker Howden Re is projecting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, driven largely by an anticipated shift toward El Niño conditions. However, forecasters caution that significant uncertainty remains, particularly for storms threatening the US East Coast.
The firm’s pre-season outlook aggregated projections from seven major forecasting organizations, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado State University, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the University of Arizona.
The consensus forecast calls for an average of 13.4 named storms, 5.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes. This compares to the 1991-2020 NOAA baseline of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Two leading forecasting organizations, Colorado State University and ECMWF, project most metrics to fall 10% to 20% below average. However, the below-average outlook is not unanimous. The University of Arizona’s AI-assisted forecasting methodology suggests an average to slightly above-average season, and most organizations’ forecast ranges include the possibility of near-normal activity.
The 2026 outlook marks the first below-average seasonal projection in several years and is driven largely by forecasts predicting a transition into an El Niño phase during hurricane season. El Niño conditions typically increase wind shear over the Atlantic, reducing the ability of storms to form and strengthen.
NOAA currently assigns a 98% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge by the August-September-October peak of hurricane season. However, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the strength of that El Niño.
A strong or very strong El Niño – defined as a Relative Oceanic Niño Index reading of 1.5°C or higher – could limit hurricane development by supporting significant wind shear in the Atlantic. Events of that magnitude are relatively uncommon, having occurred during only six Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1950. The report notes that the most likely scenario remains a moderate El Niño.
Despite the generally subdued outlook, Howden Re flagged a critical geographic caveat. Atlantic Ocean temperatures have moderated following the extreme warmth of 2023 and 2024, but waters off the US East Coast are forecast to remain above average, a region that is also typically less affected by El Niño-related wind shear. The report concluded that storms tracking along the Eastern Seaboard may encounter conditions favorable for intensification.
To contextualize the risk, Howden Re cited historical analogue seasons. Colorado State University identified 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 as comparable years. Together, those seasons recorded six US landfalls – two hurricanes and four tropical storms – with no single event generating more than $2 billion in industry losses.
The report also highlighted the growing role of artificial intelligence in hurricane forecasting. During the 2025 season, the National Hurricane Center partnered with Google DeepMind to evaluate an AI forecasting model that performed well, marginally outperforming official short-range forecasts in the 12- to 72-hour window.
AI forecasting models are not expected to replace physics-based models or human forecasters entirely, the report noted. Instead, they are expected to complement existing approaches, leading to more efficient forecasts and reduced error rates.
