The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is set for below-normal activity as a robust El Niño builds, a new Moody’s Ratings report reveals.
Nine weather research organizations have released projections calling for activity slightly below the 1991 to 2020 historical average. Activity is forecast to sit modestly above the longer-term 1950 to 2025 average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts a 55% probability on a below-normal season and a 35% chance of near-normal activity. It also puts a 10% chance on an above-normal season. El Niño generates increased vertical wind shear that tends to suppress and weaken Atlantic storms.
Forecasters expect El Niño to emerge before July and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27. The average projection across nine organizations calls for 13 named storms and six hurricanes. Two of those storms are forecast to reach Category 3 or above, with sustained winds above 111 miles per hour.
Colorado State University puts the probability of at least one major hurricane making US landfall at 32%. This sits below the 43% historical average recorded between 1880 and 2020. Elevated Gulf and Caribbean sea surface temperatures mean severe storms remain possible despite El Niño conditions.
The subdued forecast has not tempered concern among industry observers. Guy Carpenter’s May 2026 North America Peril Advisory placed the probability of El Niño conditions at 90% during the August-to-October peak season. It cautioned that seasonal outlooks have limits.
The broker said insured losses are driven by “hurricane landfalls, affected population centers, and the characteristics of impacted structures – not by basin activity alone.” It described that distinction as key for reinsurers and cedants assessing their exposure.
The warning is backed by recent history. NOAA’s 2026 forecast is the first below-normal seasonal outlook issued since 2015, yet that year still produced 12 named storms.
The 2025 season generated 13 named storms and four major hurricanes. Three of those reached Category 5 strength, showing how a basin that appears subdued on paper can still produce damaging events.
Swiss Re property and casualty reinsurance US chief executive Monica Ningen made the same point ahead of the June 1 season start. She said forecasts are not a reason “to lower our guard,” noting that averages do not capture the impact of individual events.
Swiss Re’s internal models put a 10% probability on a peak-loss year reaching $320 billion, typically triggered by major hurricanes or earthquakes. An on-trend 2026 scenario would imply insured losses of $148 billion, Ningen said.
The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index is projected at 93 for 2026, down from 133 during the 2025 season.
Moody’s said this corresponds to a normal level of overall activity. The last season with a normal ACE reading was 2022, the year Hurricane Ian caused significant insured losses.
Reinsurance pricing continues to soften. The Guy Carpenter US Property Catastrophe Rate-On-Line Index fell 14% at April 2026 renewals, up from a 12% decline at January 2026 renewals.
Guy Carpenter reported that June 2026 renewals produced risk-adjusted pricing declines of 15% to 20%, with steeper reductions at more remote attachment levels.
Arthur J. Gallagher projected the softening trend would continue through midyear renewals. Brokers broadly agreed that abundant capacity from traditional and alternative markets can absorb increased reinsurance demand.
Swiss Re estimates that growing property exposures in catastrophe-prone areas will drive insured catastrophe losses higher by 5% to 7% annually over the long term.
