Swiss Re property and casualty reinsurance US chief executive Monica Ningen has warned the industry against complacency over the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, even as Colorado State University projects "somewhat below-normal activity" of 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Writing on the outlook ahead of the June 1 season start, Ningen said the forecast reflected the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the multi-year shifts in Pacific winds and sea surface temperatures that shape global climate patterns.
El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation, while La Niña tends to amplify it, she said. A moderate-to-strong El Niño is expected during peak season, pointing to reduced storm activity.
Even so, Ningen cautioned that softer forecast numbers do not eliminate landfall risk. She cited CSU's view that "it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season."
She pointed to 1992 as a cautionary parallel. Forecasters that year called for below-normal activity under El Niño conditions and were technically correct, but the season produced Hurricane Andrew — the costliest hurricane on record at the time, until Katrina in 2005.
Andrew pushed several insurers into insolvency and accelerated broader use of reinsurance, stronger capital adequacy standards, more advanced catastrophe modeling and the early development of the catastrophe bond market, Ningen said.
She added that Swiss Re data show improved US building practices aimed at reducing hurricane vulnerability cut expected loss development by 60% to 65%. Swiss Re is a member of the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, which promotes such measures.
Ningen also flagged that 2025 global insured natural catastrophe losses reached $107 billion, below the long-term trend. The result was largely due to no Atlantic hurricane making US landfall for the first time in a decade, despite 13 named storms and five hurricanes, three of them Category 5.
Within that $107 billion total, wildfires generated about $40 billion in insured losses — the largest insured wildfire event on Swiss Re sigma records.
Severe convective storms added another $51 billion globally, making 2025 the third-costliest year on record for that peril behind 2023 and 2024. Flood losses came in at $3.4 billion, well below the previous five-year average of $15.4 billion.
Average global insured losses have been climbing 5% to 7% annually for decades, driven by economic growth and rising asset exposure, Ningen said. Secondary perils accounted for 92% of global insured losses and 99.9% of US losses in 2025.
An on-trend 2026 scenario would imply insured losses of $148 billion, she said. Swiss Re's internal models also indicate a 10% probability of a peak-loss year reaching $320 billion, typically triggered by major hurricanes or earthquakes.
Forecasts, Ningen said, are not a reason "to lower our guard," noting that averages do not capture the impact of individual events.
The strongest lever for improving insurability across hurricane-exposed and other catastrophe-prone communities, she added, remained mitigation and adaptation investment — because "even during a quiet season, hurricanes can roar."
