Insured losses from natural catastrophes are expected to exceed US$100 billion in 2025 for the sixth consecutive year, according to new estimates from the Swiss Re Institute.
The institution projects total insured losses of US$107 billion for the year, down 24% from US$141 billion in 2024 but still above the US$100 billion threshold.
Swiss Re said 2025 losses are being driven largely by record wildfire activity in Los Angeles in the first quarter and continued severe convective storms (SCS) worldwide. These perils remain key contributors to the global natural catastrophe loss burden.
“Amid annual volatility, insured losses keep rising,” said Jérôme Jean Haegeli (pictured above), Swiss Re’s group chief economist. He said “strengthening prevention, protection and preparedness is essential to protect lives and property,” and characterized reinsurers and the broader sector as “financial shock absorbers” that also support risk-informed public policy and private investment.
In a separate multi-year outlook, Swiss Re has described natural catastrophes as “the defining risk of our time the last few years” and pointed to 2025’s sequence of events – from the LA wildfires to Hurricane Melissa and typhoon activity in Asia – as an example of how losses are evolving within a changing risk regime.
The US remains the main source of global insured catastrophe losses, accounting for 83% of the estimated US$107 billion total, or about US$89 billion. Wildfires and SCS were again the dominant US loss drivers in 2025.
Swiss Re reported that 2025 is set to be the costliest wildfire year on record, with insured losses of US$40 billion. The outcome reflects a combination of extended hot, dry and windy conditions with expanding development in wildland-urban interface zones, where more housing and higher-value residential assets are exposed to fire risk.
Global insured SCS losses are expected to reach US$50 billion in 2025, making it the third-costliest year after 2023 and 2024. In the US, several severe tornado outbreaks in March and May produced above-average tornado and wind reports, while hail remained close to average and activity later in the year has been relatively muted.
In Europe, hailstorms in May and June generated notable events, but losses were limited because the most intense storms affected areas with lower concentrations of high-value exposure. Overall, Swiss Re said SCS remains one of the largest contributors to catastrophe losses.
“We are observing a steady rise in losses from severe convective storms,” said Balz Grollimund, Swiss Re’s head of catastrophe perils. He cited urbanization in hazard-prone areas, higher asset values, construction costs and aging roofs, and said a holistic view of SCS is critical for underwriting and risk management.
Hurricane activity has been intense in 2025, but insured hurricane losses remain relatively low. Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm with estimated winds near 298 km/h, made landfall in southwestern Jamaica in October, causing wind damage, flooding and landslides across Jamaica and affecting Haiti and Cuba.
Melissa is currently the costliest hurricane of 2025, with insured losses estimated at up to US$2.5 billion, according to Swiss Re Institute. The North Atlantic season has produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes, four major hurricanes and three Category 5 systems, but none have made landfall on the US coast for the first time in a decade, keeping US hurricane losses subdued.
Southeast Asia has faced severe river and flash flooding since late November, particularly in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. Swiss Re attributed the flooding to interacting cyclonic systems and an intensified monsoon under La Niña conditions, which led to heavy rain, landslides and widespread damage.
The report also highlighted the role of adaptation and early warning systems. An 8.8 magnitude earthquake off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula in July, which generated tsunami waves that reached Hawaii and parts of the US mainland, triggered a coordinated response under the Pacific Tsunami Warning System, with prior changes to coastal planning helping limit the impact on nearby Russian communities.
