The Bureau of Meteorology has confirmed the severe weather crossing central and south-eastern Australia this week includes the first genuine spring-like severe thunderstorm outbreak for the eastern states, marking the effective opening of the severe thunderstorm season.
Senior BOM meteorologist David Crock said a low-pressure system that began over Western Australia on Saturday would drive three days of widespread rain and storms across a vast area of south-eastern and central Australia. Six-hour rainfall totals of 50 to 60 millimetres are possible across the Snowy Mountains, South West Slopes and Victoria's north-east ranges into Tuesday morning. A minor flood warning is already active for the Avoca River, with further riverine flooding expected across northern Victoria as already-saturated catchments respond quickly to additional rainfall.
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are forecast for Tuesday afternoon across a broad corridor from northern Victoria through western NSW and into southern Queensland. BOM described the system as the first real springtime severe thunderstorm outbreak for the eastern states - which is the signal that distinguishes this event from the isolated cells of late winter and marks the beginning of the sustained season running through to at least February.
Storm and hail losses jumped more than sevenfold to $4.8 billion in 2025, with the average claim cost rising 39% to $16,471 as claims volumes climbed roughly sixfold on the prior year, according to ICA data. Storm and hail remain Australia's largest source of insured natural hazard losses in aggregate, even as regulators flag flood as the peril most sensitive to climate change in their long-term modelling.
Those 2025 figures were produced almost entirely within the thunderstorm season that BOM has just confirmed is now open again. That is the context for treating this week's event as more than a single claims window.
For brokers with commercial property, fleet and residential clients across eastern Australia, the practical value of BOM's season-opening signal is that it defines the window for pre-event action - and that window narrows with each subsequent system.
Three areas are worth addressing at renewal or mid-term review before the season is further advanced. First, sums insured on commercial property and residential clients should be checked against current replacement costs - rebuild costs have continued rising and underinsurance that was marginal two years ago may now be material on a hail or storm repair. Second, fleet operators with significant outdoor or hail-exposed vehicle stock should have their specific cover conditions reviewed, as some fleet policies carry per-event deductible structures that absorb more of a mass-hail event than clients expect. Third, catastrophe capacity across the portfolio is worth reviewing in the context of a season that, based on 2025 precedent, can produce multiple events in rapid succession - a pattern that tests not just individual policy limits but the aggregate claims handling capacity of the insurers on the program.
BOM's confirmation that the severe thunderstorm season has begun is, in practice, a renewal prompt. The time to review those exposures is before the next system, not after it has crossed the Dividing Range.
