Natural disasters worldwide caused total losses of nearly US$112 billion in the first half of 2026, with US$44 billion covered by insurance. That figure represents a protection gap of 60%, according to Munich Re's mid-year review.
Both figures came in slightly below the inflation-adjusted 10-year average for the period (US$113 billion total, US$50 billion insured). They were also well below the five-year average of US$136 billion total and US$66 billion insured.
The below-average first half carries a significant caveat: the second half of 2026 brings a further risk factor in the potential arrival of a "Super El Niño." Current forecasts point to record-breaking El Niño conditions towards the end of the year. These phases typically last between six months and a year, often peaking around year-end.
El Niño raises the risk of drought and wildfires in Australia, Central America, and south-western Africa. It increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall and flash floods in western South America and parts of Brazil. El Niño also enhances tropical cyclone activity across the North Pacific.
El Niño also tends to shift typhoon formation areas eastward in the Northwest Pacific. With more time over warm ocean water, typhoons can intensify and persist longer. Japan, Korea, and Greater China face greater risk as a result.
"It's a dangerous mix: as global warming continues, the world is also heading for a Super El Niño, which will drive temperatures up even further," said Tobias Grimm, Munich Re's chief climate scientist. "The effects will likely be clearly felt in the second half of the year. Taking timely precautions saves lives and limits the economic damage caused by disasters."
The most destructive single event in H1 was a double earthquake in Venezuela on June 24. Two tremors with magnitudes of 7.2 and 7.5 struck within minutes of each other approximately 200km west of Caracas, near the town of Morón.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) identified it as the most powerful earthquake to hit the region since 1900. Thousands of people were killed. Munich Re puts preliminary total losses at around US$30 billion, with insured losses of less than US$1 billion, reflecting how little of Latin America's catastrophe exposure is covered by private insurance.
For the North America insurance industry, severe thunderstorms in the US were the largest single loss driver. Thunderstorm activity across the country produced total losses of around US$30 billion and insured losses of US$22 billion. The figures are below the 10-year averages of US$34 billion and US$26 billion, respectively.
North America as a whole recorded total losses of around US$47 billion, with US$34 billion insured, also below the 10-year average.
Among the costliest events in the region was a severe thunderstorm outbreak in April. It swept through the Midwestern US into Texas and generated around 100 tornadoes, including an EF4 event with wind speeds of up to 290kph. Losses reached US$5.8 billion, of which US$4.1 billion were insured.
Three winter storms between January and March added nearly US$11 billion in total losses, of which US$7.7 billion were insured. A late-January storm, which originated in the Pacific, brought heavy snowfall and icy conditions across most of the eastern half of the US and Canada.
The North Atlantic hurricane season remained quiet through the end of June, consistent with El Niño conditions. Munich Re noted that powerful hurricanes can still occur in El Niño years. The inflation-adjusted losses from Hurricane Andrew of 1992 still rank among the ten highest on record for tropical cyclones.
Heatwaves dominated much of H1 2026 in Europe and North America, with scientists describing temperatures during the June event as "record-shattering." In Möckern, eastern Germany, a reading of 41.8°C broke the country's previous record by 0.6°C. Monthly temperature records had already been broken across parts of Europe during an earlier heatwave in May.
Attribution research cited by Munich Re found the European heatwave would have been approximately 3.5°C cooler had it occurred 50 years ago. Europe is warming at more than twice the global average rate.
A separate study found the June US heatwave produced a combination of temperature and humidity that would have been virtually impossible without climate change. In many eastern US states, night-time temperatures barely fell below 27°C.
Heatwaves are now regarded as the natural hazard responsible for the most deaths globally. In Germany alone, heat-related deaths between April and June are estimated by the Robert Koch Institute to have exceeded 5,000.
Unlike storms or floods, heatwaves rarely cause direct property damage. Their costs materialise through falling productivity, production stoppages, infrastructure strain, and crop failure.
An OECD study of 23 developed economies found that each ten additional days above 35°C reduces annual labour productivity by 0.3% on average. That is broadly comparable to the effect of a 5% rise in energy prices.
"The first half of the year has provided a welcome breather from previous years of high natural disaster losses," said Thomas Blunck, a member of Munich Re's board of management. "But climate change and growing exposure persist, increasing the risk of larger losses in the future. The best way for society to reduce losses is to stop building in high-risk areas and to keep investing in prevention."
In Europe, nine winter storms struck Portugal and Spain in the first two months of the year. Storm Kristin, which arrived in late January, brought winds of up to 170kph to the Iberian Peninsula. It caused losses of around US$7.7 billion, of which US$1.8 billion were insured.
By June, Portugal's storm losses had already exceeded the highest annual total in Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database, which covers the country's losses back to 1980.
The nine storms collectively accounted for around 80% of Europe's total natural disaster losses and 70% of insured losses in H1. Overall European losses reached around US$22 billion and insured losses just over US$7 billion, above the 10-year averages of US$18 billion and US$6.6 billion, respectively.
In the Asia-Pacific region, losses remained well below long-term averages, with total losses of around US$8.7 billion against a 10-year average of US$32 billion. Insured losses came in at just over US$1 billion, against an average of US$5 billion.
Persistent rainfall across central and southern China in May triggered severe flooding, with preliminary loss estimates of approximately US$2.8 billion, largely uninsured. Bushfires in south-east Australia caused total losses of almost US$1 billion, about two-thirds of which were insured.
Australia's Climate Service has estimated that heatwaves are already reducing labour productivity by up to around 0.5%. The figure translates to billions in economic losses. El Niño conditions are also expected to increase the risk of drought and wildfires across the region in the second half of the year.
In Africa, total natural disaster losses reached around US$2 billion. Storms and flooding in South Africa in May were the largest single event, causing more than US$0.5 billion in damage.
Virtually none of the continent's losses were insured. The figures reflect a persistent protection gap that leaves governments, businesses, and households to absorb most of the financial impact, slowing post-disaster recovery.
