Pacific commercial insurance rates fell 12% in the third quarter of 2026, the eleventh consecutive quarterly decline, according to the Pacific figures in Marsh’s Global Insurance Market Index. Property led the fall at 14%, casualty dropped 11% and financial and professional lines 8%. Marsh’s Pacific region groups Australia with New Zealand and the wider South Pacific.
Jaydon Burke-Douglas (pictured) is entering that market. The CEO and founder of Antipodean Underwriting, a five-person independent Sydney agency launched in September 2026, secured Lloyd’s coverholder status last month. Growth against that pricing backdrop is possible: AIG’s International Commercial division lifted net premiums written by 13% to US$2.4 billion in the three months to September 30, while its North America Commercial business grew 2%.
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“I think the key to growing premium in a market like this is understanding that growth doesn’t necessarily mean writing more business,” Burke-Douglas said. “It means identifying where the opportunities are, understanding the risks you’re taking on and being disciplined about where you deploy your capacity.”
“Globally backed insurers have some significant advantages, including access to capital, specialist expertise, data and international experience. However, I think the insurers getting it right in Australia are those that combine those global resources with genuine local underwriting capability and decision-making authority,” he said.
That argument carries a complication for any coverholder. A binding authority is delegated rather than owned: the syndicate behind it sets the classes, limits and terms an agency may commit to. An underwriter who has to refer a risk back to London is slower than one who does not, which makes the width of that delegation a commercial variable rather than a fixed feature of the model.
“The Australian market is relationship-driven,” said Burke-Douglas. “Brokers want competitive pricing, but they also want accessibility, quick decisions, consistency and an underwriter who understands the commercial realities of their clients’ businesses. Insurers that can deliver on those things have an opportunity to win business even in a market where rates are falling.”
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Marsh’s reading of the quarter qualifies that. In property, where the falls were steepest, it reported most placements oversubscribed as insurers expanded capacity on both new and incumbent business, and competition levels high with price the primary differentiator.
“Ultimately, the challenge is to grow profitably rather than simply grow market share. There’s always a temptation to chase premium in a soft market, but underwriting discipline is what separates sustainable growth from growth that eventually comes back to bite you,” Burke-Douglas said.
Paul Uprichard, executive director of the New Zealand Underwriting Agencies Council, told Insurance Business in August 2026, as competition sharpened across New Zealand commercial risks, that “as is always the case in a soft market, maintaining rate adequacy remains fundamental to a sustainable and resilient insurance market.”
Both propositions cannot hold completely. Marsh’s property commentary describes a quarter in which capacity expanded, placements were oversubscribed and price did most of the deciding. Burke-Douglas is wagering that service wins work price alone would lose. Eleven quarters into the softening, that wager is still open.
