Atradius unveils forecasts for 11 major Asian economies

Report provides forecast of region's main markets amid international trade tensions and political risks

Atradius unveils forecasts for 11 major Asian economies

Insurance News

By Gabriel Olano

Global trade credit insurer Atradius has released its annual Asia Country Report, a barometer of the statuses of 11 Asian economies, featuring relevant macro-indicators and an industry performance outlook.

The report is divided into 11 chapters, each highlighting one of the following Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

China is forecast to encounter an economic growth slowdown to 6%, while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies are expected to increase further in 2019. Singapore was singled out as highly susceptible to global protectionism and a hard landing of the Chinese economy, due to its high dependency on international trade.

Meanwhile, Japan’s export growth will slow down due to lower global trade expansion, but domestic demand will underpin economic expansion of about 1% in 2019, the report said.

Atradius also released its ‘STAR political risk rating’ for the 11 economies. The rating is on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the riskiest. It is also accompanied by rating modifiers of ‘positive’, ‘stable’, or ‘negative’, which, according to the report, “allow further granularity and differentiate more finely between countries in terms of risk.”

The economies’ political risk ratings are:

China: 3 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Stable
India: 4 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Negative
Indonesia: 4 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Negative
Japan: 3 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Positive
Malaysia: 3 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Negative
Philippines: 4 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Stable
Singapore: 1 (Low Risk) – Stable
South Korea: 2 (Low Risk) – Negative
Taiwan: 2 (Low Risk) – Negative
Thailand: 4 (Moderate-Low Risk) – Stable
Vietnam: 5 (Moderate Risk) – Negative

“The Asia country report is a must read for suppliers and buyers alike,” said Oliver Ford, regional sales manager for Asia at Atradius. “At Atradius, knowledge and information and its sharing are foundations of our business. Many Asian companies are mindful about the risks the Sino-US trade war may bring about and how changes to international trade may affect their businesses. With growing market uncertainties, providing our customers with the confidence they need to expand profitably is a priority for us – the reports help to support just that.”

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