Australia’s most popular vehicles are statistically more likely to kill the pedestrians they hit than the cars they replaced. The compulsory insurance structures designed to carry that risk largely do not price it.
That is the central finding of a University of Melbourne study published in September 2026, based on 10,376 crashes recorded in Victoria between 2012 and mid-2025. For brokers advising fleet and commercial clients, the gap between documented risk and current pricing is the most actionable element of this research.
Reported by ABC News, the study found that for every 10 centimetres of vehicle height, the odds of a pedestrian fatality rose by 11%. Every additional 100 kilograms of vehicle weight increased those odds by 6%.
Broken down by vehicle type, utes – Australia’s best-selling vehicle class – carried a pedestrian death probability 1.6 times higher than conventional passenger cars such as sedans and hatchbacks. Station wagons came in at 1.2 times.
University of Melbourne associate professor Milad Haghani, one of the study’s authors, said the point of impact on the human body drives much of the elevated risk. “If the point of the crush is to the upper part of the pedestrian’s body, and also if the pedestrian doesn’t end up on the bonnet and instead ends up on the ground hitting their head on the concrete, those are elements that can increase the likelihood of fatality,” Haghani said.
The risk held even in crashes that should not have been fatal. “These are otherwise survivable crashes that are turning fatal as a result of vehicle design,” Haghani said.
Researchers estimated that keeping vehicles at their early-to-mid-2000s heights and weights could save about 9% of lives lost.
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The study found no significant association between vehicle dimensions and men’s fatality risk. For women, increases in both height and weight became what the researchers described as “significant predictors of death,” with height carrying more predictive weight than mass.
Women are, on average, shorter than men, placing their head and torso at the critical impact zone of a taller vehicle’s front end.
A separate US study found that for every 10 centimetres increase in front-end height, pedestrian death risk rose by 22%, with women, children, and seniors the most vulnerable groups. The Melbourne study’s overall height figure of 11% per 10 centimetres already exceeded the US equivalent of 6.6%. Researchers noted that if front-end-specific Australian data – which does not currently exist – were available, it could show an even stronger result.
The Transport Accident Commission (TAC) publishes average cost benchmarks for its no-fault scheme: $170,000 per road death and $2.25 million per serious injury, such as traumatic brain and spinal injuries. In 2024-25, the TAC funded $1.87 billion in care and benefits to more than 43,000 people injured on Victorian roads.
In the 12 months to December 2025, the TAC’s own road safety statistics recorded 52 pedestrian deaths among 291 total Victorian road fatalities – 17.9% of all lives lost in the state where the University of Melbourne study was conducted.
Under the TAC’s no-fault scheme, pedestrians struck by any registered vehicle – including a ute – are eligible for benefits regardless of fault. The research finding that utes convert survivable crashes into fatal ones is, in scheme terms, a severity driver sitting inside existing claim categories.
Compulsory third-party (CTP) and related schemes across Australia do not use vehicle height or frontal geometry as pedestrian risk variables. The consequences of this are visible in the TAC’s own structure.
The TAC’s published guidance explains that utes are classified as goods-carrying vehicles. Because WorkSafe Victoria handles a significant share of occupant injury claims for these vehicles, a ute can attract a lower TAC charge than a comparable passenger sedan in the same postcode.
The result: a fleet of dual-cab utes – 1.6 times more likely to kill a pedestrian than a sedan – may carry a lower compulsory charge than a sedan fleet in the same area. The pedestrian fatality risk documented by the Melbourne study is not a variable the current structure reflects.
In Queensland, the Motor Accident Insurance Commission (MAIC) sets separate premium bands for Class 6 vehicles, which include utes and light commercial vehicles, updated quarterly. That structure distinguishes vehicle category, but not physical dimensions.
For brokers with fleet clients in construction, logistics, or trades – sectors where large utes are common – the question of whether comprehensive fleet premiums capture what the research now documents is worth raising before regulatory or underwriting changes force it.
According to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Australia’s top-selling vehicles in 2025 were the Ford Ranger (56,555 units) and the Toyota HiLux (51,297 units). SUV sales rose 5.5% year-on-year to 733,831 units. Passenger vehicle sales fell 22.6% to 157,484 units.
Tax treatment also factors into the economics of commercial vehicle purchases. The Australian Taxation Office’s (ATO) car-limit rules apply to passenger vehicles designed to carry less than one tonne, meaning vehicles outside that definition are not subject to the $69,674 passenger-car limit that applied in the 2024-25 income year.
The 2026-27 Federal Budget also made the $20,000 instant asset write-off permanent from July 1, 2026, allowing eligible small businesses with aggregated annual turnover below $10 million to immediately deduct eligible assets costing less than $20,000.
Haghani was direct about the policy environment. “The big cars have the momentum, and without any change in policy, the momentum is not going to go away. Right now, there is no disincentive to go and buy big,” Haghani said.
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ANCAP tested five large utes in 2025 and found all met Australia’s road vehicle standards. Chief executive Carla Hoorweg said performance shortfalls remained, particularly in simulated night-time scenarios involving a child in front of a ute and in driver visibility during turns.
“Where we see vehicles falling short is that they tend to have the technology, but it doesn’t work in the breadth of scenarios of vulnerable road user dummies,” she said.
ANCAP is developing its next three-year safety protocols, which may cover bonnet height, automatic emergency braking, and vehicle design criteria. The National Transport Research Organisation has called for a review of safety standards for large utes.
The Melbourne researchers proposed removing tax concessions, revising import safety regulations, and introducing specific licence conditions for larger vehicle drivers – none of which has progressed to formal policy.
Victoria Police Road Policing Assistant Commissioner Mick Hermans noted that fault in pedestrian fatalities is shared across both parties. “We tend to see a mix of both drivers and pedestrians at fault in fatal pedestrian collisions, with drivers most likely to fail to give way to pedestrians, while pedestrians are opting to cross a road mid-block rather than at a designated crossing,” he said.
