QBE actuaries in Europe have made another pick for a major rugby title following their success at the World Cup last year.
The insurer has laid out its cards for the 2016 RBS Six Nations, the premier international rugby union championship in the northern hemisphere and has selected Ireland as it’s likely winners.
However, Irish eyes may not be smiling as their chances took a dint with a 16-16 draw with Wales last weekend, a game which QBE thought Ireland would win comfortably 32-21.
Ireland top the leader board with a 35% chance of taking home the title, followed by England on 30% and France on 17%.
Matthew Crane, director of middle market and SME at QBE Insurance, said that while it may seem odd for an insurer to predict sports results it is much the same as pricing risk.
“Predictive analytics is either a dark art or a science, depending who you talk to,” Crane said.
“Rugby teams are not that different from businesses as they have to understand the risks and prepare for every eventuality.
“On a daily basis QBE applies science like that behind this model to different sectors such as transport, construction, and financial services.”
Crane noted that tools utilised in the prediction can help businesses of all shapes and sizes and also through in a dig at an old Australian enemy.
“These live tools improve thousands of businesses, from micro SMEs to multinational corporations by helping to recognise perils and mitigate against potential losses,” Crane continued.
“However, nothing is certain. As we saw in last year’s World Cup there is never a sure outcome. England’s inability to escape the Group of Death ultimately came down to a chance decision, either in the shape of Chris Robshaw’s call not to take the last minute penalty kick or Dan Biggar’s 74th minute drop goal for Wales from the halfway line.
“The Rugby Predictor is also a bit fun that uses just one of the many tools of analysis our experts would combine in reality.”
In the weekends other matches, the QBE actuaries correctly called for wins for England and France, versus Scotland and Italy respectively.
