The odds that Australians will continue to experience near-normal weather conditions this southern summer and autumn is high, based on the latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) report by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
According to the report, climate model outlooks show that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to remain for the rest of the southern hemisphere summer and into the autumn.
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Meanwhile, BoM said there is a likelihood of an El Niño comeback in the winter/spring of 2017, due to the anticipated warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the coming months.
Said BoM, a neutral ENSO for the months of December to April does not equate to average rainfall or temperature in Australia.
Rather, it means that the Indian Ocean Dipole - the interaction between the sea-surface temperature of the western Indian Ocean and the eastern part of the ocean - would not drive Australia’s weather to become significantly drier or wetter during that period.
BoM: Extreme weather events mar 2016
BoM: Tropical Pacific likely to remain ENSO neutral this summer