Catastrophe risk modelling firm Air Worldwide has announced the release of an Australia-first comprehensive thunderstorm model for Australia.

The new model captures three sub-perils related to thunderstorm – hail, tornado and straight-line wind – and will help companies assess and manage their thunderstorm risk.

Storm events over the last several years have seen escalating damage tolls as they hit densely populated areas in major capital cities. The new AIR offering simulates daily severe thunderstorm activity based on historical occurrence rates and local and seasonal weather patterns.

The daily simulation will see the model capture insured losses of over $10 million as well as smaller events that may last a day but could have an impact on the industry.

“In Australia, insurance losses from severe thunderstorms are greater than those from other natural perils such as earthquakes, tropical cyclones, bushfires, or floods,” said Dr. Eric Robinson, manager and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide. “Because aggregate losses from severe thunderstorms can result in extreme volatility in financial results, a robust view of the risk is critical for organisations developing resilience strategies.”

The model uses data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Severe Storm Archive and uses a hybrid physical-statistical method to simulate hail, straight-line wind and tornados in realistic locations, including those that have not experienced an event in the past.

AIR has also developed high-resolution event footprints specific to each sub-peril as the model’s damage functions are also sub-peril specific allowing for more accurate loss estimates.

“Loss potential is increasing as property replacement values rise in the densely populated cities of Australia, and the number of insurable exposures continues to grow as development expands into previously unpopulated areas,” Dr. Robinson continued.

A new suite of models for Australia is currently available in the SATRADER Version 19 and Touchstone 5.0 catastrophe risk management systems.


Related stories:
AIR Worldwide expands terrorism model
Munich Re, Aon reveal Cyclone Debbie cost