Asia-Pacific economies are drifting into the third quarter of 2017 with no great surprises – welcome news as July marks the 20th anniversary of the Asian Financial Crisis, said S&P Global in a recently published article.
In the article, titled “The Asia-Pacific Macro Story is Flat as the 20th Anniversary Of The Crisis Arrives,” Paul Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist for the Asia-Pacific said: "The best adjective to describe the Asia-Pacific macro story at mid-2017 is: flat.
"Hopes are fading fast for a reflation story driven by the Keynesian inclinations of the new U.S. administration. Europe is looking a bit more solid following the French election, but that is not enough to move the dial on the external environment facing Asia Pacific."
Nevertheless, the global ratings agency said it raised its forecast for full-year growth in China, due to the strong expansion reported in the first quarter. From the previous 6.4% estimate for 2017, it now expects the country's economy to grow by 6.7% this year.
In Japan, expansion is at a respectable annualised rate of 1% - half the rate of the initial GDP estimate for the first quarter. Australia, meanwhile, saw a 1.1% annualised growth in the quarter, with net exports pulling down growth. S&P Global said it anticipates quicker growth for the rest of the year, however, with a 2.5% full year growth resulting from steady domestic activity, which is looking fairly solid for both economies.
In the case of India, the ratings agency said it remains the bright spot amidst a weaker than expected start to the year, with structural reforms continuing to drive its potential growth.
The trade dependent “tiger economies” – Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan – saw an improvement in the first quarter, although the trade story is fading. And for the ASEAN group – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Taiwan – growth was steady.
"This month marks the 20 anniversary of the start of the Asian Financial Crisis. The lessons of that unhappy event have been largely learned," said Gruenwald. "In that context, the current unexciting state of the region's economies is actually quite welcome."
Related stories:
Munich Re predicts insurance industry growth in 2018
Insurance industry to see surge in M&A activity
.jpg)
