Nearly half of New Zealand homebuyers are making property decisions on gut feeling rather than data. More than a third cannot correctly interpret one of the most common flood risk terms in use across the industry.
For brokers, that combination has a direct professional consequence: a client who misreads risk before purchase is a client whose coverage expectations may not align with their policy when a claim arrives.
A survey of 1,029 homeowners, conducted by Talbot Mills Research and commissioned by Suncorp New Zealand, tested respondents on the term “1-in-100-year flood.”
Only 52% correctly identified it as a 1% annual probability of a flood of that size occurring in any given year.
The remaining respondents were split between two factual errors. Some 34% believed such a flood was so rare it was unlikely to happen in their lifetime. A further 17% thought that if a major flood occurred this year, the area would be safe from another for 99 years.
These are not abstract misunderstandings. They shape what buyers think they are insuring – and what they expect when a claim is assessed.
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The survey, released in October 2026, found that while 78% of respondents felt confident assessing a property’s risk before buying, only 57% actually consulted natural hazard information during their most recent purchase.
Nearly half – 49% – said they often rely on “gut feeling and intuition” rather than professional data or reports when making major decisions such as buying a home.
When respondents did seek hazard information, 59% turned to official council data. Family, friends, and local knowledge ranked second, cited by 27% – a pattern that has little bearing on what a policy will actually cover.
Asked what stopped them from looking further, 28% said they did not know where to find the information and 20% said they did not know what was available. A further 70% agreed that the way businesses and councils communicate about natural hazard risk is confusing and hard to use in practice.
The Natural Hazards Commission Toka Tū Ake (NHC) has noted that only one in three New Zealanders confidently understand their insurance – a figure that puts the hazard literacy gap in a wider context.
New Zealand’s disclosure framework shifted materially in 2025.
From July 1, 2025, councils were required to include more detailed natural hazard information in Land Information Memoranda (LIM). From October 17, 2025, the Local Government (Natural Hazard Information in Land Information Memoranda) Regulations 2025 added further requirements – a dedicated hazard section in every LIM, plain-language summaries, hazard mapping, and standardised formatting across all councils.
But more information on paper does not close the comprehension gap if buyers cannot interpret what they are reading. The Suncorp survey makes clear the barrier is not just access – it is understanding.
The Insurance Brokers Association of New Zealand (IBANZ) has been direct about what poor hazard understanding at purchase means for coverage outcomes.
In March 2025, IBANZ raised concerns that properties in sought-after suburbs may carry natural hazard risks – including flood, erosion, and subsidence – that buyers do not recognise. A Section 72 notice under the Building Act gives the Natural Hazards Commission discretionary power to limit or decline its portion of a claim. Because private insurers typically top up cover above the NHC cap, a declined NHC claim can leave a homeowner with no cover at all for the hazard their property most directly faces, then-CEO Mel Gorham warned.
A buyer who cannot define a 1-in-100-year flood is also unlikely to have checked a LIM for a Section 72 notice, understood where the NHC cap ends, or considered what their sum insured actually covers in a flood event. Those are conversations brokers can have before a claim – not after one.
The Climate Change Commission’s 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment found that approximately 556,000 buildings are currently exposed to inland flooding, with a combined replacement value of at least $235 billion.
The Insurance Council of New Zealand’s (ICNZ) 2025 Annual Review recorded total insurance claims across all lines at $3.8 billion, with full-year extreme weather losses at $278.2 million.
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Suncorp New Zealand’s policy paper – From Data to Decision-Making: Helping New Zealanders Make Better Decisions About Natural Hazard Risk – calls for a centralised all-hazards property portal, national plain-English standards for hazard terminology, and hazard checks earlier in the home-buying process.
Suncorp New Zealand CEO Jimmy Higgins (pictured) said the issue is as much about communication as data availability. “New Zealand is building a comprehensive set of natural hazard data but our research illustrates that having good data won’t automatically lead to better decision-making unless people know where to find it or how to use it. We want checking natural hazard risk to be as routine as researching the school zone, commute, or building report,” Higgins said.
He also pointed to buyers substituting informal signals for actual hazard assessments. “Too many homeowners are relying on proxy information like local knowledge or insurance prices or not clearly understanding the data they do use,” he said.
Those proxies land on a broker’s desk when the claim arrives.
