New research commissioned by ASB Bank and conducted by Talbot Mills Research has found that a majority of New Zealand businesses see recently proposed US tariffs as posing a greater long-term economic risk than the global financial shocks of COVID-19 or the 2008 financial crisis.
Out of over 300 respondents – ranging from company founders to senior executives – 67% indicated that they were concerned about how these tariffs could affect operations over the coming year. The proportion increases to 78% among firms engaged in exports.
The proposed tariffs are part of the US’s evolving trade policy under US President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. While most affected nations, including New Zealand, face a standard 10% tariff, goods originating from China are subject to higher rates.
These measures remain under review, with final decisions expected following a 90-day pause.
Businesses involved in food and fibre exports identified meat, dairy, and wine as sectors most at risk from increased trade barriers. Wool and seafood were seen as less susceptible to immediate impact.
Companies also voiced concern over broader implications including:
The data showed a divergence in response based on business size. Firms employing over 100 staff showed the highest levels of concern, with 88% anticipating disruption in trade relations with the US.
Despite these headwinds, nearly one in four businesses recognised potential upside, especially those nimble enough to reposition offerings or shift market focus.
Fourteen percent saw the situation as an opportunity outright, and another 10% considered it both an opportunity and a risk.
According to Rebecca James, executive general manager of business banking at ASB, firms are already adjusting strategies.
“We’re seeing sustained market volatility with the ever-changing political decisions around tariffs, which naturally creates a heightened sense of uncertainty for businesses. It’s clear businesses view any proposed US tariffs as troubling, but it’s pleasing that nearly a quarter of respondents see opportunity in tariffs, too,” she said.
In response to potential revenue shortfalls, about 30% of firms are aiming to offset losses via new client acquisition or internal efficiencies. Roughly one-quarter cited operational cost-saving measures, and 22% planned to diversify revenue streams. However, 22% expressed uncertainty, a sentiment more common among smaller enterprises.
James added that clients have been increasingly engaging with banks for support in trade finance and risk mitigation tools.
The report also noted a pivot among New Zealand exporters toward closer trading partners. Markets such as China (51%), Australia (37%), the European Union (28%), and Southeast Asia (25%) are being prioritised over the US.
James noted a clear trend toward regional realignment, pointing to location-based advantages and shifting consumer preferences. She also noted a growing emphasis on product quality and value-add strategies, particularly in competitive markets.
The ASB findings correspond with insights from Aon’s Client Trends 2025 report, which outlined how trade, technology, environmental volatility, and labour trends are creating compounding pressures for businesses.
The Aon report highlighted how technologies like artificial intelligence are simultaneously improving operational efficiency and introducing new risks, particularly in the areas of cybersecurity and regulatory compliance.
The convergence of climate change and worker health concerns is also becoming a focal point, particularly for businesses with field-based operations.
