Most Australians associate bushfire risk with summer, but new data suggests that assumption is leaving households exposed.
Research published by NRMA Insurance on June 11 found that 42% of Australians do not feel prepared for a bushfire, and just 6% give any thought to fire preparation during winter months. The data, collected through the NRMA Insurance Wild Weather Tracker, also found that one in four Australians have either experienced a bushfire near their home or felt directly threatened by one. Despite that level of firsthand exposure, preparation habits have not shifted to reflect the reality that fires can and do occur outside the summer months. A developing El Niño climate cycle is expected to bring drier and hotter conditions to large parts of Australia this winter.
The research found that residents in bushfire-prone areas are more engaged with preparation than the general population, but gaps remain. More than a quarter of those residents – 26% – still do not feel adequately prepared, and only one in 10 considers winter a relevant time to act on fire readiness. That figure is notable given that the cost of being caught unprepared can be severe. NRMA Insurance NSW claims data going back to 2016 shows bushfire claims carry an average cost 69% higher than flood claims, which rank as the next most expensive category. Over the past decade, the insurer has processed more than 9,000 bushfire-related claims. The bulk of those – close to 8,000 – were tied to the 2019-20 Black Summer event, which remains one of the most destructive bushfire seasons on record.
NRMA Insurance head of natural perils and meteorologist Peter Chan said the concept of a defined fire season is becoming less reliable as climate conditions shift. “Australia’s bushfire season varies by region and typically runs through the hotter months in southern parts of Australia, but fires can occur at any time of the year when weather and fuel conditions allow, and this winter is a clear reminder of that,” Chan said.
Chan pointed to the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires as a reference point for how fire risk can emerge outside expected periods. Those fires claimed hundreds of lives and destroyed approximately 16,000 structures, demonstrating what Chan described as the sudden and devastating nature of fire events that fall outside historical seasonal patterns. Climate change is also expanding the geographic boundary of fire risk, as residential development continues to push into areas that border bushland. That combination of climatic and demographic factors is placing more people and properties in the path of potential fire activity.
NRMA Insurance property assessor Judi Hindson, who has worked in the field for 37 years, said that many households underestimate how fires actually cause structural damage. “Bushfires can be unpredictable and fast moving, and we often see communities caught by surprise. It’s not flames, but embers, that can cause most of the damage,” Hindson said. Embers can travel significant distances ahead of a fire front, landing on or near structures before flames arrive. Hindson said that relatively straightforward maintenance – clearing debris from gutters, trimming vegetation close to the home, and storing flammable materials at a distance – reduces the likelihood of ember ignition. The condition of a home also has consequences beyond the individual property. A well-prepared structure is easier for firefighters to defend, which in turn reduces risk to neighbouring homes in the same street or community. “You can’t stop a bushfire, but you can reduce how vulnerable your home is,” Hindson said.
Despite the elevated outlook for winter fire conditions, the early part of 2026 was notably calm from a weather claims perspective. NRMA Insurance recorded 8,442 wild weather damage claims during autumn, following January and February claim volumes that were the lowest in more than a decade. The insurer attributed the reduced activity to fewer storm and rainfall events during that period. The dry conditions that suppressed storm activity, however, are the same conditions that increase fire risk – leaving less moisture in vegetation and raising the likelihood of ignition and rapid fire spread.
The preparedness picture sits within a wider context of financial risk linked to extreme weather. In March 2026, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) published the Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment, a stress test examining how Australia’s home insurance protection gap – the share of property losses not covered by insurance – could change by 2050. The assessment, conducted alongside Australia’s five largest general insurers, found the proportion of uninsured freestanding households could grow from roughly one in seven today to one in four within 25 years.
The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) responded by calling for coordinated policy action, including investment in flood mitigation infrastructure and reform of taxes applied to insurance premiums. ICA chief executive officer Andrew Hall framed the issue as one where government decisions made now will shape outcomes over the coming decades. “The policy choices around investment in mitigation for homes which governments make now can help to prevent rising risk,” Hall said.
