Central New Zealand faces an up to 60% chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake over the next decade, according to the latest prediction from GeoNet, a collaboration between the Earthquake Commission and GNS Science.
In a statement the organization placed the risk between 10% to 60%, with the best estimate at 30%. Meanwhile, the risk for a magnitude 7.8 or greater quake stood at 2% to 20%, with the best estimate at 7%.
Data came from scientists from Japan, Taiwan, and the US who collaborated with their Kiwi counterparts. Together they assessed all the earthquake models, including newly developed models on how slow slip events impact the probability of future earthquakes. The results were then combined with other information, including observations of how the numbers of earthquakes change during slow slip events, and evidence of earthquake clustering over past years, to estimate revised probabilities for large events in central New Zealand, GeoNet said.
Back in December 2016, there was a 5% chance of a magnitude 7.8+ earthquake within the coming year (December 2016 to November 2017). The best estimate now stands at 1% within the next year (December 2017 to November 2018).
Last November, a presentation by two US researchers caused a stir in the New Zealand media after suggesting a link between Earth’s slowing rotation and an increase in earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher. The research concluded that 2017 marks six years following a deceleration episode that commenced in 2011, suggesting that the world has now entered a period of enhanced global seismic productivity with a duration of at least five years.
Commenting on the reports, Mark Stirling, of the University of Otago, said the Otago earthquake science group does not support the primary conclusion of the research presented.
“We see it as yet another example of a fortuitous correlation between earthquake occurrence and an unrelated phenomenon,” he said. “While the researchers involved in this most recent work are very well known and regarded, we have no basis to support their conclusions at this time.”
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