For all the talk of a softening market, brokers walking into Te Pae Convention Centre on Monday are facing a more challenging truth: Whilst New Zealand's insurance market continues to soften or flatten in some classes, it is also evolving quickly alongside the expectations from several stakeholder groups. And in that shift lies both the opportunity and the risk that will define the broking conversation for the rest of 2026.
Paul Uprichard (pictured), executive director of the New Zealand Underwriting Agencies Council (NZUAC), is careful not to oversell the optimism creeping into market commentary.
"There's a growing narrative that conditions are improving and we're cautiously optimistic we may see the impact of that, particularly towards the end of 2026,” he said. “But right now, the reality is still volatility.”
Global geopolitical tension, fresh movements in the oil market, continued weather and seismic losses, persistent cost pressures and a domestic election year are all pulling at a market that can pivot quickly. Recent oil price swings alone can carry downstream implications that brokers could feel progressively through renewal cycles.
The headline rate movements — Aon's Q1 global market insights pointed to soft pricing of up to 10% in cyber and commercial property — only tell part of the story. Beneath them sits a fragmented reality.
"The current insurance market in New Zealand is continuing to soften in parts but this remains relatively complex and uneven overall," Uprichard said.
Increased competition and capacity in certain classes is delivering improved pricing and broader options for some risks. But that benefit is not landing evenly. Outcomes remain stubbornly tied to the specific class, risk, location and underlying exposure profile.
"Some areas remain impacted more than others, with some flat but the outcomes remain risk/class specific," Uprichard said.
It is the kind of market that rewards diligence and punishes assumption.
The strategic risk Uprichard identifies is one that historically emerges every time a market begins to turn: the temptation to chase the premium reduction at the expense of the cover.
"There is a broader challenge around balancing price and long-term outcomes,” he said. “In a more competitive environment, there can be a natural focus on achieving short term premium savings and that may well be the right option in certain circumstances.”
However, Uprichard said the real value for customers is in ensuring that cover remains adequate for their needs and performs as expected over time, particularly when a claim occurs. He said the increasing range of specialist solutions available across the market is helping brokers build more appropriate and flexible outcomes for customers alongside traditional coverage structures.
That balancing act is being made harder by a customer base whose expectations are climbing — driven, in part, by AI-fuelled assumptions about what insurance should deliver, accurate or otherwise. Personal Lines and SME customers, by definition more price sensitive yet often more exposed to both existing and emerging risks, sit at the sharp end of that pressure.
In a softening market, the quality, consistency and long-term performance of cover becomes just as important as pricing when brokers are assessing solutions for their clients.”
If choice is a headline theme of the Expo, partnership is its underlying argument — and the one Uprichard is most insistent on.
"Partnership matters because no single part of the market can solve these issues in isolation," he said.
That explicitly frames the broker-agency-insurer relationship well beyond transactional placement. It pushes collaboration into product design, risk understanding and claims response — the parts of the value chain where outcomes are actually determined.
This conversation will step back from operational noise to confront the bigger questions about talent, capability and how the industry collectively responds to a more volatile environment.
"Ultimately, the discussion will focus on what the pathway looks like to achieving a stronger, more resilient future for the industry," he said.
The pitch to brokers attending Christchurch is equipping them with a sharper read on a market still finding its footing.
"Ultimately, the theme is about giving brokers more tools, access and confidence to place business effectively in a market that isn't straightforward and making sure that, as an industry, we're working together to deliver better outcomes for customers, not just reacting to the volatility," Uprichard said.
Insurance Business New Zealand is the official media partner. This article was written in collaboration with NZUAC
