Lloyd’s syndicates expect to keep cutting prices in 2027. The ones planning the fastest growth are those a leading members’ agent rates lowest.
Argenta Private Capital’s review of the 2027 business plans of about 40 syndicates open to private capital, published on 2 November, found that planned combined ratios for 2027 are the weakest since 2019. “Prices are falling, profit margins are narrowing,” the report said, adding that this “is not a cause for alarm” but means the realism of each plan warrants closer scrutiny.
The plans reflect a market already softening. In the first half of 2026, Lloyd’s risk-adjusted rates fell 6.7%, nearly twice the pace of a year earlier. The market’s underlying combined ratio rose to 84.0% from 82.1%, even as its headline combined ratio improved to 90.8%.
Most syndicates assume further price declines across many classes in 2027. Property reinsurance has seen the steepest fall in pricing, and the clearest planned deterioration is in non-marine reinsurance and direct and facultative property. Motor and portfolio solutions plans carry combined ratios above Lloyd’s 95% long-term benchmark. Only a few plans expect price increases, mainly in political risk, where geopolitical uncertainty supports demand.
Appetite for growth differs sharply by syndicate quality. Syndicates rated C+ and C under Argenta’s rating system plan for new business to make up 40.9% of their 2027 premium, against 24.5% for B-rated and 15.7% for A-rated syndicates. Lower-rated syndicates also assume investment returns of 6.7%, compared with 3.1% for the highest rated. “Higher-rated syndicates generally have taken a more cautious approach in their 2027 plans, relying less on new business and assuming lower investment returns,” Argenta said.
Conditions in specialty lines are mixed. Cyber plans range from strong growth to a complete exit from direct business, and cyber is the only area where Argenta’s syndicate cohort plans flat income from 2026 to 2027.
In war lines, the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have prompted insurers to tighten geographical limits, exclusions and sanctions screening across marine war, aviation war and political violence. Some syndicates see growth opportunities in political risk, specialist reinsurance and delegated authority business.
Lloyd’s currently estimates the market could face losses of about £1.4 billion from the Middle East conflict, equal to about 3.3 points on the combined ratio, according to the report.
Demand to back the market remains strong. Lloyd’s capacity auctions began on 21 October, and the first auction saw the largest volume traded in more than 20 years, though average capacity prices were lower than last year.
For brokers placing at Lloyd’s, the 2027 plans point to a buyer’s market in property and reinsurance and continued discipline in war and political risk. The most aggressive appetite for new business is coming from the syndicates whose plans assume the most. That matters when weighing a keen quote against whether the capacity will still be there in 2028.
