Road deaths in Wales rose to 91 last year, up from 84 in 2024, according to the latest Department for Transport statistics. It's the first annual increase since Wales became the first UK nation to make 20mph the default limit on residential and built-up roads in September 2023, and critics of the policy at Westminster and in the Senedd have already used the figures to renew their case for scrapping it.
The number that actually feeds motor pricing models tells a narrower, less dramatic story. Deaths specifically on 20mph roads stayed flat at 19 in both 2024 and 2025, according to the Welsh Government. Whatever drove the overall rise happened on roads the policy never touched.
Deaths across all Welsh roads fell from 101 in 2023, the year the limit came in, to 84 in 2024, before climbing back to 91 in 2025. Killed-or-seriously-injured casualties hit 1,361 last year, the highest since 2019. Collisions on 20mph and 30mph roads combined rose 2% to 1,469, from 1,445 in 2024, though that's still the second-lowest annual figure on record, with 2024 holding the low.
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Researchers at the Senedd have made the same split the Welsh Government is now pointing to. Their analysis found casualties on Welsh 20mph and 30mph roads fell by roughly 23% between spring 2023 and the end of 2024, against a broadly flat trend on other roads — a faster decline than the equivalent figures in England or Scotland over the same window. The "worst KSI figure since 2019" line doing the rounds is accurate as a total, but it lumps together roads the policy governs with roads it doesn't.
Wales has effectively been running a live pilot on what happens to motor claims when urban speeds come down, and insurers were quick to report on it. esure said in June 2024 that vehicle damage claims in Wales had fallen 20% since the limit was introduced, bucking the seasonal pattern it usually sees. Head of motor underwriting Rob Clark called it "clearly having an impact" at the time. esure translated that into an estimated £50 average annual saving for Welsh policyholders and said it would apply the same logic to any new 20mph zone within three months of it launching.
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That claims data is now over a year old, and there's no sign yet of insurers updating it in light of the 2025 fatality rise — worth watching for, given how directly it feeds into how Welsh postcodes get rated.
The timing matters for the wider market. Jefferies has forecast the UK motor sector will post a combined ratio of around 108% in 2025, an eleven-point deterioration on the year before, with parts and labour inflation still running ahead of premium growth. Anything that reduces the frequency of low-speed urban collisions, the kind that generate a large share of bodily-injury and bumper-and-windscreen claims, has a direct line to underwriting margin in that environment.
Pricing data backs that up, at least in part. Confused.com's Car Insurance Price Index, produced with WTW, recorded comprehensive premiums falling 16% in 2024 to an average of £834, with the comparison site's own chief executive naming 20mph zones as one factor alongside broader market competition. More recent index figures show premiums still falling year-on-year, though the rate of decline has slowed.
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The scheme hasn't stood still since 2023. Former transport minister Ken Skates gave Wales's 22 local authorities the power to consult residents on reverting individual roads to 30mph, backed by £5 million in funding, and a steady run of roads have gone back up since.
A Transport for Wales monitoring report from July 2025 found compliance had eased slightly from its early peak but still recorded "a significant and sustained increase" in vehicles travelling at or below 24mph compared with before the policy.
That's the figure that matters most for anyone pricing Welsh motor risk right now: average speeds are still well below their 2023 levels, even as individual roads revert and some enforcement has slackened.
How much of that holds as more roads switch back — and whether other UK nations follow Wales's lead, as some road-safety campaigners want — will decide whether this claims benefit is structural or temporary.
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