More than a quarter of London Market brokers have no confidence the market will develop enough senior claims expertise over the next decade - a finding that lands as the industry grapples with an accelerating talent exodus at the experienced end of the profession.
That is the headline figure from new research by Tokio Marine Kiln (TMK), based on a survey of 55 brokers conducted between July 15 and August 31, 2026, with 79% of respondents holding C-suite, partner, head of department, director or senior broker roles across at least 17 organisations.
The picture is not uniformly bleak. Three quarters (75%) of those polled believe the London Market is either leading the way (31%) or keeping pace (44%) with claims developments. But confidence falls sharply when brokers look further ahead. Only 25% feel very confident the market will retain sufficient senior expertise over the coming decade, while 27% say they have no confidence at all.
Brokers identified cyber and systemic attacks as the area where the market is most exposed, with 27% citing it as the class the market is least prepared to handle from a claims perspective. Technology and data capabilities followed at 25%, with geopolitical and conflict-related risks at 21%. Climate-driven events and regulatory and legal complexity each registered at 11%, with supply chain and contingent risks at 3% apiece.
The findings sit within a wider body of data pointing to structural thinning at the senior end of the market. Research published by the Lloyd’s Market Association (LMA) in July 2026 found that the proportion of professionals at managing agents with more than 15 years’ claims experience fell from 37% to 31% in just two years, while new entrants with fewer than three years’ experience now account for 52% of junior claims roles at Lloyd’s, up from 37% in 2023.
Read more: Is Lloyd’s storing up a claims capability problem?
The London Market Group’s London Matters 2026 report projects that the under-30s’ share of the workforce will fall from 24% to just 7% within a decade. Early careers hiring dropped 25% in 2025, with a further 25% decline forecast for 2026.
One of the sharpest observations in TMK’s data is the gap between what brokers say they fear and where they say investment should go. Despite the warnings about an eroding senior talent pipeline, only 15% of respondents identified talent development and succession planning as their top investment priority.
That disconnect has a wider parallel: talent attraction and retention surged from seventh to first among UK insurers’ top business concerns in 2026, according to Gallagher Bassett’s Carrier Perspective: 2026 Claims Insights report, with 72% of UK respondents flagging it as a concern. Yet investment decisions have not followed at the same pace.
Read more: UK insurers’ junior hiring crisis may be about the office, not the algorithm
Claims management and adjusting were identified as the function facing the most acute shortages, with 48% of UK insurers reporting difficulty finding qualified candidates.
Tobin Ryan, head of claims at Tokio Marine Kiln, said the window for action is narrowing.
“At TMK we hire for character as much as technical skill. Adapting to rapidly developing situations takes more than technical know-how, especially with the rising novelty and complexity of losses, for example cyber or geopolitical risks. We often see that good judgement now means knowing when to get involved and when to step back, empowering our experts to help clients recover from a loss.
“As risks evolve and become increasingly complex, the time to invest in people is now, before the claims that need them arrive. We already have enormous talent within the market with excellent candidates now seeing the London Market as a destination career. The challenge is to give that talent the best in training and opportunities to build rewarding and enjoyable careers in claims. That is something we at TMK strive to do every day.”
The market has begun to act. The LMA and the International Underwriting Association (IUA) this year launched a new claims capability framework, developed by 37 professionals from 25 firms, covering the first two years of a claims professional’s career. The London and International Insurance Brokers’ Association (LIIBA), the IUA and the LMA have also jointly staged what they describe as the first claims skills conference of its kind in the London market, targeting handlers, junior lawyers, brokers and loss adjusters with one to five years’ experience.
Read more: LMA and IUA act on claims talent shortage with new capability framework
Whether those structures can close the gap fast enough depends on a simple calculation: the claims complexity now arriving at the market - in cyber, geopolitical risk, and climate - is not waiting for the talent pipeline to catch up.
