The US property and casualty industry is on course for a net combined ratio of 94.0 in 2026, according to the latest forecast from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman, with results varying sharply by line.
The forecast, presented in a members-only webinar, expects commercial lines net written premium to grow about 3 percentage points a year faster than personal lines from 2026 to 2028.
“Our latest economic outlook points to greater stability for the P/C industry, but with a temporary slowdown in 2027,” said Michel Léonard, Triple-I’s chief economist and data scientist.
Triple-I expects the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy through 2027, slowing both GDP and underlying P&C growth in 2027 and 2028, especially in homeowners. Growth in P&C replacement costs is expected to fall below overall inflation in 2027 before rising above it again in 2028.
Homeowners had its best first half in more than a decade. The direct incurred loss ratio was 49%, helped by lower catastrophe losses than in the first half of 2025, when the Los Angeles wildfires hit results. Net written premium growth in homeowners is forecast at 6.4% for 2026, the slowest since 2020.
Triple-I said early loss estimates for Hurricane Isaias are unlikely to change the profitability picture materially. It noted that the hurricane season runs until November 30 and that further storms could still affect results.
Personal auto is slowing much faster. Net written premium is forecast to fall 0.6% in 2026, 4.6 points below 2025, the second-weakest growth in more than 15 years after 2020. The line’s 2026 combined ratio is forecast at 95.5.
General liability and commercial auto remain the most difficult lines.
“We expect net combined ratios for both lines to remain above 100, although commercial auto quarterly loss ratios are showing early signs of improvement,” said Jason Kurtz, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman.
Workers’ compensation is heading for its 12th consecutive year of underwriting profit, with a forecast 2026 combined ratio of 92.7. However, premium is expected to fall 0.7% in 2026 and stay broadly flat in 2027 and 2028. Donna Glenn, chief actuary and product officer at NCCI, said 2026 net written premium is likely to come in slightly below 2025.
Patrick Schmid, Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, said improved results must be seen in the context of several years of high loss costs and heavy catastrophe losses. He said maintaining underwriting strength is critical for insurers’ ability to pay claims and keep cover available.
The forecast points to a market moving in two directions at once. In personal lines, shrinking auto premiums and slower homeowners growth suggest insurers will compete harder for profitable business. That could ease pricing for clients with good risk profiles, especially in auto.
In commercial lines, the picture depends on the line. Workers’ comp and property clients should continue to see stable or falling rates. Clients with significant general liability or commercial auto exposure, however, are unlikely to see relief soon. Underwriting losses forecast above 100 mean carriers will keep pushing rates and tightening terms. For brokers, that makes risk management, fleet safety and contract risk transfer central to renewal strategy for those accounts.
