Karen Clark & Company (KCC) has estimated privately insured losses from Hurricane Isaias at $3 billion, from wind and storm surge.
The figure covers residential, commercial and industrial property, automobiles and business interruption. It excludes boats, offshore property and losses paid by the National Flood Insurance Program.
KCC’s estimate is at the top of the range from the main catastrophe modelers. Verisk put insured onshore losses at $1 billion to $2 billion, and Cotality estimated $2 billion to $3 billion for wind and surge. The estimates differ in what they include. Verisk, for example, excludes items such as loss adjustment expenses and tornado damage.
Separate commentary from a reinsurance broker suggests total insured losses will settle at the lower end of a low-to-mid single-digit billion-dollar range.
That broader figure includes wind, storm surge, inland flood, tornadoes and expected NFIP losses. The broker said current reinsurance capital levels mean the event is unlikely to affect January 1 renewal discussions.
KCC said the worst impacts were in coastal towns in the Florida Panhandle, including Destin, Pensacola Beach and Navarre. Peak storm surge reached about 8 feet. There was also major damage around Pensacola Bay, in towns such as Milton and Pace.
In Milton, about 20 miles inland, KCC reported many downed trees and severe structural damage. Roofs were partly or completely torn off homes, apartment buildings, motels and grocery stores. In Pensacola Beach, some mid-rise and high-rise buildings lost siding and cladding, and many gas stations in beach towns were destroyed. Power cuts were widespread across Florida and Alabama and reached western Georgia.
The storm’s effects extended well beyond the coast. According to the broker’s commentary, surge exceeded 5.6 feet in Panama City Beach, inland flooding stretched from Alabama to the Carolinas, and at least 21 tornadoes were confirmed across the Southeast.
KCC said Isaias was the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season but the first to reach hurricane strength, making it the latest first hurricane of a season on record. It intensified rapidly twice: first from a 40 mph tropical storm to an 80 mph hurricane, then from Category 1 to Category 3, with 120 mph winds.
Increasing wind shear weakened Isaias before landfall near Destin at 8:30 p.m. CDT on October 9, with sustained winds of 105 mph. The broker’s commentary said the storm’s weakening, its track and its relatively compact wind field reduced its exposure to densely populated areas along the Gulf Coast.
With modeled estimates now ranging from $1 billion to $3 billion, Isaias is a manageable event for the market as a whole. The damage KCC describes points to a heavy commercial property claims load in the Panhandle, though. Hotels, motels, grocery stores, gas stations and apartment buildings with roof and cladding damage mean brokers will be handling business interruption claims as well as property claims. Wind deductibles, ordinance or law cover, and periods of restoration will all come into play.
Tornado and inland flood damage far from the coast, in areas such as Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas, may surprise clients who didn’t think of themselves as exposed to hurricanes.
Brokers there should expect questions about whether named-storm deductibles apply to damage from tornadoes spawned by a hurricane, which depends on individual policy wording.
