A new Neptune Flood analysis of the past decade of Atlantic hurricane activity challenges the assumption brokers hear most after a calm season -- that no landfall means no risk.
The report gave brokers a data-backed way to reopen flood coverage conversations with clients who read 2025's quiet season as a season to stay uninsured.
The 2025 Atlantic season ended without a hurricane making landfall in the continental United States for the first time in a decade, even though the same season produced three Category 5 hurricanes, tied for the second-most of any year on record behind 2005's four. Only Tropical Storm Chantal made US landfall, while major hurricanes including Erin, Humberto and Melissa stayed offshore or struck outside the continental US.
Roughly 4% of Americans carry flood insurance nationally, a figure that fell to about 2% across the 100 counties hardest hit by Hurricane Helene, and below 1% in North Carolina's Buncombe County, home to Asheville and surrounding communities that saw severe losses. Neptune estimated Helene alone caused between $20 billion and $30 billion in uninsured flood losses absorbed directly by homeowners, almost entirely inland and away from the coastline clients typically associate with flood risk.
For brokers writing homeowners or commercial property in non-coastal markets, that points directly to underinsured clients who assumed flood exposure was somebody else's problem.
Nine consecutive years before 2025 saw at least one hurricane make US landfall, and between 2016 and 2024, 25 hurricanes came ashore, an average of nearly three per year, with six of the ten costliest US hurricanes on record occurring in that span.
That frequency has pushed the National Flood Insurance Program deep into debt, with the program paying a non-inflation-adjusted US$36.7 billion on more than 586,000 claims over the decade to 2025, accounting for 40% of all claims paid in the program's history. The NFIP currently owes $22.525 billion to the US Treasury against a $30.425 billion borrowing cap, leaving roughly $7.9 billion of headroom, according to Congressional Research Service figures.
The NFIP's authority to write new policies and borrow at that level expires on September 30, 2026 unless Congress reauthorizes the program, something it has repeatedly done at the last minute in recent years.
Brokers with NFIP-backed clients renewing or binding new business near that date should flag the deadline now, rather than fielding client calls if reauthorization runs down to the wire.
NOAA's 2026 outlook has already been revised down once since its initial May forecast of 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes. Its August 6 update, published the same day as Neptune's report, cut the range further to 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes, including 0 to 2 major hurricanes, and raised the probability of a below-normal season from 55% to 75%.
For brokers placing excess and surplus flood or private flood market business, a second consecutive quiet season has pricing implications worth acting on quickly.
Lloyd's, which has historically participated in the NFIP's own reinsurance tower through fronting arrangements, has already warned that catastrophe reinsurance could face renewed competitive pressure into 2026 if the market continues without significant losses.
A market softening on price while underlying exposure remains unchanged is a good moment for brokers to lock in coverage or negotiate better terms before capacity tightens again. In practice, that could mean multi-year rate locks on private flood placements while pricing remains favorable, or pushing for expanded coverage limits at flat premium rather than accepting a straightforward renewal at last year's terms - either approach captures value from the current softening before a active season resets the market.
Hurricane Sandy illustrates the risk clearly. The storm made landfall in 2012 as a Category 1, the weakest hurricane classification, yet caused an estimated $70 billion in damage because it struck one of the country's most densely populated coastlines. It replaces the question "how many storms will there be" with a more useful one for clients: what happens if just one finds us.
A below-normal seasonal forecast, even one cut within months, says nothing about where the next storm that does form will track.
Clients are least inclined to think about flood coverage after a quiet year, which is exactly when a conversation about take-up rates, reauthorization risk and softening reinsurance pricing is most likely to land, before renewal season moves on without them.
