President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Oman if the US ally interferes with Washington’s negotiations over Iran has added another layer of uncertainty to an already severely disrupted marine insurance market around the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump made the threat during an interview with Fox News on Monday as Oman and Iran moved closer to an agreement governing shipping through the strategic waterway. Reuters reported Trump as saying: “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s*** out of them.”
The comments are particularly significant for marine insurers because Oman controls the southern side of the Strait of Hormuz and has played a central role in negotiations aimed at restoring shipping traffic after nearly six months of disruption.
Iran has restricted most movement through the strait since the US-Israel conflict with Tehran began in February. Before the conflict, roughly 130 to 140 vessels typically crossed the waterway each day. Reuters reported last week that traffic had fallen to as few as eight tracked vessels in a day.
The US Energy Information Administration estimates oil flows through Hormuz averaged 20.9 million barrels per day during the first half of 2025, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Around one-fifth of worldwide liquefied natural gas trade also historically passes through the strait.
The prolonged disruption has already transformed the pricing and structure of marine war risk insurance. War risk premiums surged sharply following the outbreak of hostilities. Reuters reported in March that rates reached around 3% of vessel value, compared with approximately 0.25% before the conflict. For tankers valued between $200 million and $300 million, that translated into war risk premiums running into several million dollars.
Pricing has subsequently moved rapidly in response to attacks and diplomatic developments. In July, industry sources told Reuters that rates for vessels operating inside the Gulf had risen toward 3% from about 2% only days earlier. War risk insurance for these voyages is typically written in seven-day periods and can be reviewed every 24 to 48 hours, leaving shipowners exposed to significant cost changes over short periods.
Coverage nevertheless remains available. The Lloyd’s Market Association has said war insurance continues to be offered through Lloyd’s and London company markets for vessels choosing to transit Hormuz, while P&I liability coverage through the International Group clubs remains non-cancellable and reinsured in London.
Capacity has also been added during the crisis. In June, Lloyd’s announced a marine war risk consortium providing up to $200 million separately for hull and P&I risks, alongside another $200 million of dedicated cargo capacity for Hormuz transits.
The latest diplomatic developments had offered some prospect of greater certainty. Iran said Monday that it and Oman had reached an understanding over transit routes through the strait, although broader negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain unresolved.
Trump’s threat against Oman potentially complicates that process by injecting uncertainty around a country that has positioned itself as a neutral mediator.
Even a formal agreement reopening Hormuz may not produce an immediate normalization of insurance pricing. Insurers have previously indicated that war risk rates could remain elevated after traffic resumes because of the possibility of renewed attacks or another breakdown in diplomacy.
The EIA estimates that oil and petroleum liquids moving through Hormuz averaged just 4.9 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026, down from 21.6 million barrels per day in the final quarter of 2025. Its latest outlook assumes flows remain severely constrained through August before gradually increasing from September.
That leaves marine insurers, cargo owners and their brokers navigating a risk environment in which diplomatic developments can alter vessel security, underwriting appetite and pricing within days.
Trump, meanwhile, indicated that Washington was not operating to a fixed timetable for ending the Iran conflict. “I have no time schedule. I’m not in a hurry,” he said, according to reports of the Fox interview.
