US surplus lines premium hit $129.8 billion in 2024, and the 15 states with stamping offices reported roughly 8 percent growth in 2025. But beneath those headline numbers, the E&S market is shifting. Capacity is returning, competition is intensifying, and carriers and wholesale brokers are being forced to think harder about where the strongest opportunities lie. Five industry leaders joined Insurance Business to discuss market dynamics, client expectations, the role of AI, and the talent pipeline.
US surplus lines premium reached $129.8 billion in 2024. Through mid-year 2026, the 15 stamping office states reported $47.6 billion in premium, a 2.8 percent increase over the same period in 2025, with item counts up 16.9 percent. Brady Kelley, CEO and president of WSIA, noted that non-professional liability coverages grew nearly 12 percent in 2025, representing about 38 percent of stamping office premium, while professional liability lines such as D&O, E&O, and MedMal grew 5.1 percent.
Pockets of softening are appearing in the E&S casualty market. Sara Gundersen, EVP of E&S casualty at Sompo, said submissions have grown 20 percent or more year over year, but that halfway through 2026 competition is growing as carriers lean into the casualty space. Travis Dean, vice president of excess casualty at Westfield Specialty, described 2026 as a transition from the hard market of 2020 through 2024, with Bermuda and London markets becoming more aggressive and supply and demand moving toward equilibrium. Loss costs, he emphasized, are not going down, making underwriting discipline as important as ever.
Construction, products liability, agriculture, and premises liability are all cited as strong E&S casualty growth segments. Shanna Sweeney, senior vice president of excess casualty liability at Upland Specialty Insurance, pointed to infrastructure, civil contractors, and specialty trades in construction, particularly accounts investing in subcontractor management, contractual risk transfer, and telematics. Products liability remains attractive where the end use and supply chain impact are clearly understood. Agriculture, spanning growers, processors, distributors, and agribusiness services, rewards specialization. Within any segment, Sweeney said the real opportunity is identifying the better risk, not just the better class of business.
In a more competitive E&S market, David Duran, senior casualty broker at Wholesure, identified three factors that set wholesale brokers apart: expertise, relationships, and execution. He argued that complex casualty business is no longer won by market access alone but by understanding the exposure and telling the story behind the risk. Brady Kelley added that a 2016 Conning study, updated in 2021, confirmed wholesale distribution does not increase transaction costs for the insured, and he expects that finding to hold when Conning updates the report later in 2026. Duran's four execution markers are technical expertise, market access with credibility, responsiveness paired with accuracy, and genuine advocacy when a coverage issue or difficult renewal arises.
The AI insurance market was valued at $8.63 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $59.5 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual rate above 27 percent, with 86 percent of insurance firms planning to increase AI spending this year. Sara Gundersen of Sompo sees AI's clearest value in helping underwriters prioritize submissions that align with their appetite, but does not expect it to remove the underwriter from the process. Travis Dean said Westfield Specialty's AI use is in early stages, with potential applications in analyzing loss runs and comparing expiring and current exposures. David Duran drew the dividing line at judgment: AI can eliminate administrative tasks, but understanding the story behind a risk, asking the right follow-up questions, and deciding with incomplete information remain human work.
A strong E&S submission does three things, according to Shanna Sweeney of Upland Specialty Insurance: it explains the operation clearly, acknowledges the difficult exposures, and demonstrates what the insured is doing to control them. Any large claim needs a narrative explaining what happened, what changed, and why a similar event is less likely to recur, because a loss history without context leaves underwriters to make assumptions that are rarely favorable. On timing, David Duran urged retail brokers to involve wholesale partners well before a renewal deadline. Early engagement allows the wholesale partner to shape the marketing strategy, identify the right carriers, and address potential pitfalls before they become obstacles, creating competition for the account rather than simply shopping for capacity.
WSIA's outreach now reaches more than 100 risk management and insurance programs annually through student symposiums, career fairs, and campus visits, with more than 3,700 students contacted in the most recent year. Brady Kelley said the association has expanded through its Talent Advocacy and Engagement Foundation to include non-RMI programs, HBCUs, and Hispanic-Serving Institutions. Shanna Sweeney highlighted a separate challenge for women, who make up roughly 60 percent of the insurance workforce but less than 25 percent of executive officers. She argued that mentorship alone is insufficient and that what women need is sponsorship, meaning someone actively putting their name forward for career-changing opportunities.