Australia’s motor vehicle theft figures have reached a 17-year high, but the story of most consequence for insurance professionals is not the national headline. It is the growing divergence between Victoria and the rest of the country – a divergence that is now generating confirmed premium movements, regulatory scrutiny of how those movements are communicated, and an increasingly difficult set of client conversations for brokers.
At a national level, motor theft claims rose 2.5% to 29,000 in 2025, with total incurred costs of $485 million, according to Insurance Statistics Australia (ISA) data released by the Insurance Council of Australia (ICA). Excluding Victoria, this figure would be a reduction of 10% in claims and 8% in costs. Victoria recorded a 25% increase in motor theft claims and a 37% rise in incurred costs from 2024 to 2025. The state’s total bill – $243 million across more than 12,500 claims – is higher than the combined sum of all other states analysed. Metropolitan regions recorded 10,400 claims totalling $205 million, up 30% by volume and 42% by value compared with the previous year.
Western Australia, South Australia, and Queensland all recorded significant reductions in motor theft claims – down 15%, 14%, and 12% respectively, with Queensland’s decrease the largest percentage drop on record. Theft claim frequency sharpens the picture further. Frequency fell across all states except Victoria, where it rose 31%, climbing from 0.35% to 0.46% in metro areas, against a backdrop of a 2.2% increase in the number of comprehensive motor vehicle policies across all states analysed. ICA CEO Andrew Hall said the pattern is structural, not cyclical. “Each year, Victoria’s numbers stand apart from the rest of the country, and that gap is widening. While every other state is effectively reducing car theft, in Victoria the volume of claims and the costs involved remain at unacceptable levels and that sustained pattern is what’s most concerning,” Hall said.
Crime Statistics Victoria (CSV) data for the year ending September 2025 identified the Holden Commodore as the most targeted model with 1,587 thefts, followed by the Toyota HiLux at 1,021 and the Toyota Corolla at 998. Toyota vehicles make up six of the top 10 most stolen models in Victoria for the same period. The theft methodology has shifted in ways that affect risk advice. Victoria Police intelligence suggests up to 40% of all cars continue to be stolen using key mimicking or cloning technology used to override car security systems. Since the start of 2025, police have seized more than 1,100 of these devices during search warrants.
However, Allianz’s own claims data adds a counterpoint: the insurer noted that “many vehicles continue to be stolen with the owners’ keys,” with unlocked and unattended vehicles, and distractions such as leaving keys in the ignition, continuing to provide opportunities for opportunistic theft, according to Drive. For brokers, this means the risk conversation spans both ends of the theft spectrum – high-tech relay attacks on keyless-entry vehicles and basic opportunistic theft that no technology can address.
The claims data is now flowing into premium decisions. IAG, which underwrites RACV and NRMA, confirmed it has incorporated Victoria’s theft data into its business model. IAG CEO Nick Hawkins said the insurer is treating current theft rates as the new baseline. “We are assuming that’s the new normal now until there’s evidence otherwise. That’s the actual experience we’re seeing,” Hawkins said, as reported by Drive. Morgan Stanley research, reported by the Australian Financial Review, estimates motor premiums increased around 10% in the December quarter.
For brokers, the pricing pressure compounds existing affordability concerns. As Laura Meyer, director of Meyer Insure in Creswick, told Insurance Business Australia: “Premiums keep climbing, and for some people it’s getting harder to justify or even afford cover at all, which is worrying from a community resilience point of view. Insurance only works if people can actually access it.” She also noted a consistent theme among peers managing larger motor portfolios: “There’s a pretty consistent theme that theft is on the rise, especially with keyless entry vehicles.” For brokers, the implication is that motor repricing may persist even if reinsurance relief is showing up in the background. If insurers believe theft losses in Victoria have structurally worsened – through higher frequency, higher severity, or both – premiums can continue rising while underwriting appetite tightens, especially for higher-risk postcodes, vehicle types, or usage patterns.
Premium increases are attracting regulatory attention that bears directly on how brokers and insurers communicate with clients. The Australian Securities and Investment Commission’s (ASIC) Report 838, released in August 2026, found that motor vehicle insurance premiums rose 8% in the 12 months to July 2025, outpacing inflation. This followed growth of more than 42% between 2019 and 2024. The review examined eight insurance brands across five insurers representing around 72% of the market and found that none of the insurers reviewed explained the key factors affecting how premiums were calculated in quote and renewal documents, or why they had changed from the previous year.
ASIC commissioner Alan Kirkland said: “With many households already facing cost-of-living pressures, consumers deserve to know why premiums are going up so they can decide whether to stay with their current insurer or shop around.” For brokers, this regulatory finding creates both a risk and an opportunity. Where insurers have not explained premium movements, brokers who proactively communicate the drivers – including theft frequency data, postcode-level risk, and vehicle-specific exposure – are better positioned to retain clients and demonstrate value at renewal.
Victoria Police has continued targeted enforcement against vehicle theft through Operation Trinity, while Queensland Police launched Operation Yankee Forge in February 2026 as part of a broader crackdown on high-harm offending. With IAG treating elevated Victorian theft as structural and ASIC scrutinising how premium increases are communicated, brokers managing Victorian motor portfolios face a near-term environment of continued pricing pressure, tighter underwriting settings, and clients who need clear, evidence-based explanations of why their costs are rising.
