Ecclesiastical Insurance is advising property owners to take preventative measures as prolonged dry conditions increase the likelihood of subsidence and wildfires across the UK.
The insurer’s warning follows what it described as the driest start to a year in England since 1976. This contrasts with spring 2024, which marked the wettest season in nearly four decades.
Regions including Cumbria, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Cheshire, and the Midlands are already reporting drought conditions. Meanwhile, Thames Water, Southern Water, and South East Water have implemented hosepipe bans in other areas facing sustained dry weather.
Although recent rainfall has helped alleviate some pressure, the Environment Agency has maintained its warning of potential widespread drought conditions continuing through to September. Reservoir levels in both England and Scotland remain lower than seasonal averages.
According to the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH), river levels across most of the UK are predicted to stay below normal, and soil moisture is reported to be significantly reduced, particularly in the East and South of England.
The last major drought event occurred in summer 2022, resulting in hosepipe bans that affected around 19 million residents following a six-month dry period. Ecclesiastical Insurance recorded a 54% rise in subsidence-related claims from 2021 to 2022 – the highest volume since 2018.
In similar conditions during 2022, more than 18,000 of the 23,000 subsidence claims received were filed within a short late-summer window, with total insurer payouts amounting to approximately £219 million. The pattern suggests that claims typically peak following the driest periods, as building foundations become increasingly stressed.
The experience of previous heatwave years such as 2003, 2018, and 2022 has shown that claim volumes can rise by as much as 400% during extreme dry spells. This has created operational pressure for insurers, particularly around engineering investigations, loss adjusting, and policy response times.
Data from the Association of British Insurers (ABI) indicated that subsidence-related payouts on home insurance claims reached £66 million in Q3 2024. This figure represented an 11% increase from £59 million in Q2 and a 61% rise compared to the same quarter in 2023.
With the 2022 event now considered a benchmark by many insurers, the £219 million in subsidence-related payouts has influenced how underwriting teams model future drought-linked losses. The concentration of claims in short timeframes has been factored into surge modelling scenarios, which are increasingly used to test insurer capacity and operational response.
Property owners are being encouraged to take action where possible. Measures include assessing the proximity of trees to buildings, planting vegetation at appropriate distances based on garden size, and ensuring guttering and plumbing are maintained to prevent water leaks.
If subsidence is suspected, policyholders are advised to contact their insurer to begin investigations, which may involve assessments by engineers and loss adjusters.
Dry conditions have also elevated wildfire risks. In April, over 18,000 hectares of land were burned, marking the highest weekly total recorded. More than 80 fires covering areas of at least 30 hectares have occurred across the UK this year. Fire services have urged the public to refrain from using disposable barbecues and starting campfires in open spaces.
While Ecclesiastical has not reported a significant number of wildfire-related claims to date, it noted that St Mary and St Peter’s Church in Wennington, Greater London, sustained smoke damage during 2022 fires that affected nearby land.
The company’s claims operation has taken steps to prepare for an increase in demand. Jeremy Trott (pictured above), claims director at Ecclesiastical Insurance, said climate variability is making certain risks more prominent.
“It’s impossible to ignore the impact of a changing climate, which will likely bring more volatile weather conditions, including droughts, in the coming years,” Trott said. “Going by our data from years, as a result, we expect the volume of subsidence claims to rise over time as weather conditions get warmer.”
Trott said that if customers suspect they are experiencing subsidence, they should contact their insurer to initiate an investigation to determine the source of the damage and identify any necessary remediation.
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