Two weeks into the 60-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal. According to ship-tracking data, just five vessels transited on July 1, 2026, against a pre-crisis daily average of more than 100. War risk pricing remains around eight times pre-crisis levels, while the central transit corridor is still mined.
Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association (LMA), is measured about what comes next. The market, he says, has faced "more of a volume challenge than a pricing opportunity" - a distinction he believes is central to understanding how underwriters are approaching the weeks ahead.
"There was always and there remains sufficient capacity, with cover available for a price," Roberts told Insurance Business. "That price reflects the risk. Forty-six vessels have been attacked in the region, compared with none since the Houthi ceasefire up to the present crisis. A number of variables remain unresolved, and until these are clarified, pricing is likely to remain elevated. Much depends on how peaceful the 60-day period proves to be."
The LMA was clear throughout the conflict that cover never disappeared. A survey of London market participants conducted in March found 88% retained appetite for hull war risks and more than 90% for cargo. What changed was the cost of cover, not its availability - a distinction Roberts said was obscured by intense public and media attention, alongside "political and popular misapprehensions adding complexity to the picture."
The two-tier pricing structure - a low annual rate with voyage-by-voyage repricing when risk escalates - "is well understood in the marine war market and operated as expected," he said.
Hull war premiums have since fallen from roughly 5% of vessel value to around 2% after discounts, according to brokers cited by the Financial Times, as the June ceasefire encouraged capacity back into the market. Willis Towers Watson said in May that rates are unlikely to fall much further until the market sees a sustained period of incident-free transits - something typically measured over years.
Roberts identified one structural lesson the crisis has surfaced: the need for clearer differentiation between notice of cancellation issued to reprice cover and notice to cancel for non-payment of premium.
"There are always points to take forward, and that is one of them," he said. "Reinsurers will be considering what level of information they had or need to make an informed projection of exposure to guide their own risk acceptance."
On the JWC listed areas - which covered most of the Gulf before hostilities began on 28 February 2026 and were extended as attacks mounted - Roberts was straightforward about the timeline for any relaxation.
"While amendments may be made after an extended clear period of peace, it would be unrealistic to expect any swift relaxation in the need for voyage notifications for the Middle East," he said.
That sits alongside an unresolved sanctions dimension. Iran's Persian Gulf Shipping Authority (PGSA), designated by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control in May 2026, has established an insurance approval requirement for vessels transiting the strait. During the current toll-free window, the sanctions exposure remains limited. After day 60, however, any shipowner paying PGSA fees would be transacting with a sanctioned entity - a problem the ceasefire does not resolve.
The JWC listed-area designation will not be formally lifted until there is sustained incident-free passage, a settled geopolitical picture and confirmed demining — and Roberts was clear that the market should not expect that quickly. That expectation is now built into renewals and reinsurance programmes covering Gulf exposure.
For the London marine war market, the opportunity was never the crisis itself but the repricing that follows. Whether that proves durable depends on whether the current pause in hostilities develops into something more permanent. For now, the ceasefire appears less like a return to normality than the start of a longer period of reassessment.
