Global marine insurance premiums grew modestly in 2024 and the market's underlying performance remains sound, but war risk, shifting trade routes and the pace of AI adoption are shaping a more complex environment ahead, the International Union of Marine Insurance said at its annual conference in Rotterdam this week.
IUMI president Frédéric Denèfle told delegates that hull and cargo markets had posted premium growth, supported in part by a weak US dollar, though the offshore energy sector remained subdued. Global marine insurance premiums totalled $39.92 billion in 2024, a 1.5% increase on 2023, though growth slowed from 5.9% the prior year, a deceleration traced mainly to offshore energy's near-8% contraction. Ocean hull premiums reached $9.67 billion, up 3.5%, while cargo premiums rose 1.6% to $22.64 billion, with loss ratios improving for a sixth consecutive year.
The conference's most practically significant signal for brokers came from outside the IUMI podium. Stephen Rudman, Aon's head of marine in Asia, has said underwriters have already cancelled certain hull war policies and are offering reinstatement at materially increased rates amid elevated geopolitical risk, though he noted no systemic withdrawal of capacity.
Denèfle's own remarks reinforced the direction of travel. He said uncertainty from increasing war risks, additional capacity bringing greater competition and continued inflationary pressure remained material concerns, even as the market's headline numbers stayed positive. IUMI Secretary General Lars Lange has separately noted that geopolitical and trade tensions have generated significant uncertainty around war risks, tariffs and other economic measures.
For brokers placing hull and cargo risk, the practical implication is straightforward: war risk terms are tightening selectively, not across the board, but clients with hull war cover should expect renewal conversations to carry more complexity than the stable headline premium figures suggest.
Denèfle said insurers would need to adapt as geopolitical developments push trade onto new routes. "As insurers, we must be prepared to insure tomorrow's trades and trade routes, including those being introduced to avoid areas of tension and conflict," he said. "We also need to understand the new markets that will inevitably emerge as a result of geopolitical developments."
He also pressed the industry to lead on shipping's decarbonisation, saying insurers must take a prominent position on the transition away from fossil fuels despite what he described as difficulties encountered so far on that journey.
On technology, Denèfle predicted the sector would move toward standardised digital documentation and broader AI adoption. "I see a day, not too far in the future, when our sector will be able to offer fully digitised and standardised global cargo insurance certificates that meet the requirements of financial institutions and our customers," he said. "AI is going to change how we operate. It will make us smarter and more efficient, and we will need to embrace and adopt this new technology wholeheartedly."
The conference, running September 20-23 at Rotterdam's Postillion Congress Centre, is being held under the theme "Anchoring Trust in a Contested World," with dedicated workshops on war risk and on logistics and trade.
