About 42 percent of US adults say they are at least somewhat likely to switch health insurance plans in the next year, according to a CivicScience survey conducted from July through the end of August 2026. Sixteen percent described themselves as "very" likely to switch, up from 13 percent in summer 2025, and the timing tracks directly to market conditions.
Enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025, enrollment on ACA marketplaces fell by nearly three million people, and average out-of-pocket premiums rose 58 percent for those who stayed, according to KFF's July data.
The switching intent figures cover respondents across all coverage types, not just marketplace enrollees. But the profile of likely switchers points toward the individual and small-group market.
CivicScience found that the plurality of those considering a change currently pay for their own coverage at a rate well above the general population average, and they are less likely than average to be enrolled in a government-assisted program.
Intent to switch skews sharply toward younger age groups. Among Gen Z adults, 25 percent said they are "very" likely to switch plans soon. Among Millennials, 24 percent said the same. That compares with 12 percent of Gen Xers and 6 percent of Baby Boomers.
Part of the Gen Z figure is structural. Adults aging off parental coverage under the ACA's dependent coverage provision, which cuts off at 26, face their first independent coverage decision with no help from the enhanced subsidies that existed when many of them came of age.
The broader Millennial cohort is more likely to be self-employed, employed in gig or contract roles, or working for small businesses without group coverage. Those are the same workers most exposed to the subsidy expiration.
ACA marketplace enrollment fell hardest among adults 18 to 34, who accounted for 46 percent of the total decline in sign-ups in 2026, based on KFF's May enrollment analysis. Their re-entry into the market, or their shift to alternative coverage, is what the CivicScience intent data is beginning to capture. For brokers managing group plan renewals and individual coverage transitions, that cohort represents the most active segment of potential new clients heading into this cycle.
The most actionable finding for benefits brokers is not who is switching, but what they prioritize when they do. Among likely switchers, network coverage ranked first at 36 percent, followed by out-of-pocket spending limits at 32 percent. Overall plan price came third.
Among the general population, price leads. That gap matters in the current environment, where many consumers downgraded to bronze plans after losing subsidies and are now absorbing the cost of higher deductibles when they actually use their coverage.
A broker entering a renewal or new-coverage conversation who leads on premium may be addressing the wrong concern. A client who spent 2026 on a high-deductible plan after their out-of-pocket premium more than doubled is more attuned to what it cost them to use their insurance than what they paid each month for it.
The data suggests the pitch that lands is one built around network access and out-of-pocket protection. That is a different conversation than the one most clients expected to be having two years ago, and brokers who understand what drove the shift in consumer priorities are better positioned to hold accounts through it.
Open enrollment for 2027 coverage begins November 1, giving brokers roughly two months to get ahead of this. A CMS final rule has moved the federal marketplace deadline to December 15 for all states using HealthCare.gov, cutting the enrollment period from 75 to 45 days. That is less time for clients to evaluate plans, and it puts a premium on brokers who start conversations before November rather than during it.
The CivicScience data also shows that likely switchers are considerably more likely than average to be planning a job change, with 54 percent "very" likely to look for a new role versus 22 percent of the general population. Job changes are a qualifying life event under the ACA and open a special enrollment period outside the standard window. Brokers who track employment changes among existing clients have an opening to initiate coverage conversations at precisely the moment a client is most likely to act on them.
