Iran launched missile and drone attacks against US military targets in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain on Wednesday after American forces resumed strikes against Iranian territory, the BBC reported. The exchange returns the Strait of Hormuz to active conflict conditions, less than three months after a ceasefire framework appeared to offer a path to normalization. The strait is the world's single most critical energy shipping corridor.
The strait carries roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, according to the International Energy Agency. Any sustained disruption has direct consequences for energy prices, cargo flows, and the marine war risk market that underwrites them.
Before the conflict began on February 28, hull war-risk rates for Hormuz transits stood at around 0.15% to 0.25% of vessel value. Following the initial US and Israeli strikes, premiums surged to between 3% and 10%, according to Marcus Baker, global head of marine at Marsh. For a $150 million tanker, a 10% rate translates to a $15 million insurance bill for a single transit.
A June ceasefire brought a brief reprieve and premiums began retreating from their peaks. Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association (LMA), noted a "softening" after the June MOU was signed, but said an "uptick" followed after three vessels were attacked in the first week of July. The renewed fighting reported by the BBC signals further pressure on a market that had not yet returned to stable conditions.
A March 2026 Howden Re report estimated the conflict could generate $2 billion to $3 billion in war, terror, and political violence claims. That figure exceeds the segment's estimated annual global premium volume of $1.5 billion to $2 billion.
The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a fresh alert on August 24 on sanctions risks tied to Hormuz passage payments. The alert named three designated bodies: the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company, and HormuzSafe Marine Services Authority. Accepting insurance or services from those entities carries sanctions risk even without payment, and the warning applies to non-US entities as well as American ones.
The LMA has separately produced model clause wording that allows insurers to cancel a vessel's coverage if a Hormuz toll payment comes to light. For brokers placing tanker cover, the practical consequence is a dual compliance check: confirming both that the policy applies to the chosen transit route and that no payment to a sanctioned entity is planned.
The BBC's reporting confirms explosions at or near Bahrain and missile barrages targeting Jordan's Aqaba, locations with major commercial aviation infrastructure. The March strikes triggered widespread airspace closures across the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, with Lockton citing thousands of flight cancellations. Aviation war-risk underwriters face renewed accumulation concerns across Gulf transit hubs if the current exchange prompts further airspace restrictions.
Political risk and trade credit underwriters face a separate reset. The expiry of the June MOU and the resumption of hostilities changes the disruption timeline for companies with Gulf exposure.
Before the conflict, an average of 178 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz daily. That figure fell by around 95% after hostilities began in February, according to reporting cited by Marsh. A sustained return to conflict conditions places that disruption risk back on underwriters assessing contingent business interruption and trade credit exposure across energy-dependent supply chains.
