Even though many may not know what it is, the global non-life run-off market has become a trillion-dollar industry, increasingly central to the wider insurance value chain.
According to PwC’s Global Insurance Run-Off Survey 2025, estimated reserves now stand at US$1.129 trillion, an 11 per cent rise since the previous survey. This growth reflects both new business moving into run-off and reserve strengthening in casualty lines, particularly in the United States.
Run-off refers to the management of insurance liabilities after a firm has stopped writing new policies in a given class of business. Instead of seeking new premiums, the insurer focuses on handling existing claims until all obligations are settled. Run-off can take the form of an internal unit that manages closed books or, more often today, the transfer of liabilities to a specialist acquirer. For insurers, it is a tool to release capital, shed volatile risks, and simplify operations.
One major British example is Equitas which was created in 1995 and was established to reinsure and manage the vast and long-running liabilities of Lloyd’s syndicates written up to and including 1992. At inception, it held net liabilities valued at around £15 billion – becoming the largest start-up company globally.
The transaction was designed to secure every “Name” (investor) at Lloyd’s against liabilities from prior years. Assets covered these obligations at over 100 percent, and Equitas continues, albeit dormant in operations, as the world’s largest run-off reinsurer.
Insurers have leaned more heavily on legacy solutions to ease capital strain and reduce reserve volatility. “Casualty reserves have been strengthened across the market on account of adverse experience, especially from the 2013–2019 soft market underwriting years,” the survey notes. At Lloyd’s, regulators flagged concerns last year over “lengthening development patterns, with claims emerging later than expected” and “inconsistent recognition of social inflation, despite clear evidence of rising claim severity.”
Publicly disclosed deal activity has slowed in volume but not in scale. In 2024, 33 non-life run-off transactions transferred US$6.6 billion in liabilities, while in the first eight months of 2025 a further 25 deals accounted for US$1.1 billion. The bulk of activity sits in the US$250 million to US$1 billion range, with half of respondents identifying this band as the core opportunity over the next 18 months.
Despite consolidation – Catalina’s exit from property and casualty, R&Q’s insolvency and Fortitude Re’s pivot to life run-off – the market remains well-capitalised. “Creating bespoke solutions that go beyond solving for the immediate capital need is key for our clients,” said Connie Tregidga, Group M&A Director at Compre Group. “Transaction structures are increasingly including an element of renewal or future exit as we become the trusted capital partner with appetite for long tail reserve risk.”
Competition is intense yet selective. Half of respondents said there was “limited room for new acquirers to enter the market,” reflecting high barriers to entry and the growing importance of specialist expertise.
The survey devotes significant attention to the role of legacy syndicates at Lloyd’s. Rachel Turk, Lloyd’s Chief of Market Performance, sought to rebut scepticism: “Negative sentiment remains in some corners of the market that any form of legacy transaction results in poorer outcomes for the client. This isn’t backed up by the data that we have, or the experience that we see.”
New rules require Lloyd’s pre-approval for all legacy transactions beyond the standard three-year RITC process. Turk said: “The new rules are not intended to suggest Lloyd’s is anti-legacy deals. The driver behind the new rules was to provide Lloyd’s with the assurance and oversight of what liabilities are flowing around the market.”
Asbestos may have defined the first generation of legacy risk, but new exposures are already shaping the next. The survey identifies PFAS chemicals and sports-related head injuries as the most pressing emerging liabilities. “The increased exposure to complex multi-defendant litigation has significantly extended the long tail of liability. In this environment, a robust legacy market is an increasingly vital resource for insurer risk management,” said Robert Reville, Head of Casualty Market Development at Moody’s.
In the United States, the National Football League has already paid around US$1 billion to 4,500 former players in concussion-related litigation, while similar claims are advancing in the UK against rugby and football authorities.
Technology is expected to reshape the sector’s operations. More than 80 per cent of respondents anticipate a “moderate to significant impact” from generative AI in due diligence and post-deal integration. Survey authors point to AI-driven claims analysis, automated fraud detection, and agentic AI tools that are already boosting productivity. Yet concerns remain: 32 per cent of respondents cited data privacy and security, while 21 per cent highlighted the risk of hallucinations.
The mood of the industry, captured in PwC’s word cloud of survey responses, is one of “stability,” “evolution,” and “discipline.” As Andy Ward and Rebecca Wilkinson of PwC UK put it in their foreword: “This edition seeks to provide not just an analysis of where we are, but a framework to consider how this evolving market continues its journey.”
With capital still flowing in, regulatory scrutiny tightening, and new risks emerging, the run-off sector looks set to remain, in PwC’s phrase, a sector for all seasons.
