The credit and political risk insurance (CPRI) market is continuing to demonstrate steady performance in 2025, supported by sustained demand from corporates, lenders and public sector organisations navigating a volatile global environment, according to a report from Howden.
Rising geopolitical tensions, shifting trade dynamics and uneven macroeconomic conditions have prompted a renewed focus on risk transfer solutions. In this context, CPRI is being used to support cross-border trade and investment by mitigating exposure to non-payment and political disruption.
Recent data show that trade credit, a key component of the CPRI market, has delivered consistent underwriting profitability over the past decade, including through periods of economic contraction. The average net combined ratio for trade credit insurers stands at 78% since 2015, highlighting relative stability despite broader market fluctuations.
According to market intelligence, the global CPRI and surety market is valued at US$49 billion, covering a mix of products that includes trade credit, political risk, export credit agency cover, and surety bonds. It ranks among the larger segments within the specialty insurance space, with a broad international footprint and varied customer base.
Between 2019 and 2023, the sector recorded growth across several product lines. Trade credit premiums rose at a compound annual rate of 14%, while international surety grew at 9% and US surety and fidelity lines by 11%. This growth is attributed to heightened interest in risk mitigation tools, particularly in response to supply chain challenges and investment exposure in emerging markets.
Despite these gains, market participants have identified constraints on capacity and underwriting appetite in some areas. A limited pool of reinsurers and lead underwriters, combined with a cautious approach to risk selection, has led to a mismatch between supply and demand for some forms of cover.
A 2025 survey conducted by Howden among buyers of political risk insurance found increased interest in CPRI products, driven by concerns over geopolitical developments, trade restrictions, and economic policy uncertainty. Respondents reported a greater need for protection as they reassessed international operations and investment strategies.
While underwriting conditions across the broader insurance market are beginning to soften, the CPRI sector has so far maintained pricing discipline. Market observers suggest that increased flexibility, product development, and investment in underwriting expertise will be necessary to meet evolving client expectations.
The outlook for the rest of 2025 remains uncertain, shaped by ongoing conflicts, supply chain shifts, and broader financial market pressures. Industry analysts note that the ability of CPRI to provide risk transfer in such conditions may support continued growth, provided capacity remains available and accessible.
Insurers and brokers active in the space have called for greater understanding of the product’s role and risk profile, particularly among capital providers. While some markets remain cautious, others see opportunities to expand, backed by the historical performance and adaptability of the sector.
As demand increases, the CPRI market is expected to play a continued role in facilitating trade and investment activity, offering protection in areas where traditional insurance solutions may fall short.
