Every UK insurance broker surveyed by Ascend Insurance Holdings (AIH) expects the current soft market to plateau by the fourth quarter of 2026, with 96% forecasting revenue growth of between 5% and 15% over the next 12 months, according to new research from the platform.
Of those surveyed, 54% expect revenue to rise by between 5% and 10%, while 42% forecast growth of between 10% and 15%. Over a three-year horizon, nearly two-thirds project gains of 10% to 15%, and 30% expect their firms to expand by more than 15%.
In the near term, directors' and officers' (D&O), employee benefits and key man cover featured most often in brokers' top three growth picks, with property and cyber ranked next.
Over a three-year window, the leading nominations shift to vehicle insurance, D&O and cyber risk managed cover, followed by property and liability lines.
The plateau call lands against continued rate softening. Marsh's Global Insurance Market Index showed UK composite commercial rates fell 8% in the first quarter of 2026, with property down 10% and financial and professional lines also down 8%.
John Donnelly, president of global placement at Marsh Risk, has said the competitive environment is expected to persist as insurer profitability remains strong, with property supported by favourable reinsurance terms and significant capacity.
Aon has noted that benign natural catastrophe experience during 2025 helped support favourable reinsurance conditions at the 1 January 2026 renewals, with buyer-friendly conditions expected to persist this year, though the pace of softening is slowing — a nuance that aligns with brokers' Q4 plateau view.
AIH is assembling a group of between four and six regional broking powerhouses across the UK, supported by backing of up to £200 million. The platform is aimed at independent brokers seeking scale without joining larger consolidators.
Previously reported, AIH was launched by private equity firm Inflexion through its £975 million Enterprise Fund VI, with Chelmsford-based Ascend Broking Group, a commercial, healthcare and risk management specialist of around 30 staff, serving as the anchor investment.
The platform received FCA authorisation on April 28 and has already held preliminary conversations with around 10 broker firms.
The platform is positioned against a UK broker M&A market that has cooled to a multi-year low, with major acquirers pulling back and traditional sale routes for independents narrowing.
Chief executive Matthew Collins (pictured above) said brokers are "optimistic about growth in their sector and ambitious to expand their own businesses too," but warned that many "may struggle to achieve the growth they expect without investment and support on issues such as regulation and technology."
Collins added that tapping external expertise and shared central capabilities allows brokers to widen their offering and expand without losing focus on their core business.
