The trading environment has changed in ways that cannot be reversed by a single policy announcement or the resolution of any one geopolitical conflict. For Benoît Urbin (pictured), chief executive officer for the UK and Ireland at Coface, businesses are operating in a fundamentally different trading environment.
He argued uncertainty had become a structural feature of global trade rather than a series of isolated shocks.
"Uncertainty has become the new normal," he said. "This is no longer episodic. It has become structural."
The diagnosis is blunt, but the data supports it. Coface entered 2026 projecting global insolvencies would rise by around 3% compared with 2025. That forecast has since been revised upwards to 6%, driven in part by the knock-on effects of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
Urbin said insolvency levels were now approaching their highest point since the global financial crisis and were likely to rise further.
Despite that deteriorating risk backdrop, the UK trade credit insurance market presents a striking paradox: conditions for buyers remain unusually competitive.
"We are in a very soft market," he said. "There is fierce competition on pricing, rates are pretty low, capacity is still there, and terms are pretty aggressive. But the environment is probably more risky than ever."
For Urbin, the disconnect between rising insolvency risk and highly competitive pricing is what makes the current market unusual.
"You have the capacity, low price, very good conditions, in a pretty risky environment," he said. "For non-insured clients, this is probably the best moment to enter into this business and transfer their risk."
The UK sits at the centre of this dynamic. With every major global carrier operating in the market, Britain represents what he described as "the paroxysm of this industry in the world", where pricing competition is at its most intense.
For brokers advising commercial clients, the combination of rising insolvencies and competitive pricing may create an opportunity to revisit trade credit insurance with businesses that have historically gone without cover.
The most consistent failure among trading businesses, Urbin argued, is not strategy but information. Companies grow comfortable with counterparties they have known for years and underestimate how quickly conditions can change.
Deteriorating payment behaviour is often the earliest indication of financial strain, he said, with warning signs ranging from requests for extended payment terms to changing ordering patterns, rising disputes and growing dependence on a small number of customers or suppliers.
"An insolvency does not come in one day," he said. "It is a combination of small signals – slower payment, weaker communication, more pressure on terms."
In the UK, he identified retail, construction and textiles as sectors warranting particular vigilance.
As a recent example, he pointed to a construction company, which entered administration in June 2026 after delivering several high-profile London developments.
According to Urbin, the company had shown warning signs well before entering administration, illustrating how credit risk can deteriorate gradually rather than suddenly.
Research commissioned by Coface, based on a survey of more than 1,200 European business leaders conducted by Coleman Parkes in February and March 2026, found fewer than one in five companies had risk data that was consistent across all the markets in which they operate. More than half (52%) relied on fragmented or inconsistent data across different markets.
Urbin argued that familiarity with customers, suppliers and long-standing trading relationships can create a false sense of security, leaving businesses exposed to weakening financial positions that are not immediately obvious.
